OKC Thunder: the shots will fall – the math guarantees it
Back in the black
This has been mentioned and cried over, but the OKC Thunder are currently scoring 101.8 points per game, 28th in the NBA, which is bad. That’s 407 points in four games, which, again, is bad.
So, the question is, if the Thunder had shot just normally so far this year – not well, just normally – if they had approached their mean, how would the offense have been?
Oh yeah. That’s what I’m talking about. I mean, literally, that’s what I’ve been talking about this whole time. Just take a gander at all that green. Feels good, right?
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Check out the two guys who have missed out on the most points this season – Russell Westbrook and Paul George. Russ has lost 12.9 points in only two games. That’s crazy. Luckily, he has a knee surgery to blame. PG has lost nine points this year just on open threes. That will not continue.
So, although we can’t expect everyone to explode for career-high numbers from here on out, we can expect them to regress toward the mean for the rest of the season. The stats tell us that the average numbers are what we should expect. And we should expect that the red turns green.
But it’s been so bad this season, would it even have mattered? Yes. It would have.
Take those 53.5 expected points that the Thunder lost in their couch cushions in the first four games and add them to their 28th-ranked 407 points? That would have taken the Thunder from 101.8 points per game, 28th, to 115.13 points per game.
That would be 12th in the NBA.
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And keep in mind that Russ missed two games. And keep in mind that the Thunder have played three top-10 defenses so far. Keep in mind also, that regression is real. And also that these numbers are un-sustainably bad. And know that the offense has been good.
The numbers say one thing, but the math… the math is our friend.