OKC Thunder: Firing Billy Donovan won’t solve team’s biggest issues

Is Prestiball a winning formula?

There have been just two constants in the franchises’ short tenure, Russell Westbrook and Sam Presti. While both are at the core of the Thunder’s success, both have their weaknesses that have been more apparent than ever this early season.

Let’s start with Presti, because he’s the foundation for everything that happens in this organization. It’s he after all, who constructs the team and in-turn, develops a vision about how said roster, with it’s strengths, will be successful.

Offensively, the team has relied on two superstars to produce a majority of the scoring. First it was Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Now it’s Westbrook and Paul George. In the starting lineup, these two have been surrounded with long, athletic, defense-first players, who while serving a useful purpose, often times come with a major weakness(es) on offense.

Too Many One-Dimentional Role Players

Even some of the best role players in Thunder history have had glaring flaws. Serge Ibaka for the most part, could only shoot. It was only towards the end of his Thunder career he was able to extend his range beyond-the-arc. He was never comfortable putting the ball on the floor and never really developed as a reliable passer.

Andre Roberson‘s issues have been well documented. While he’s become useful as a cutter and screener, his inability to shoot has drastically lowered his value. Who knows what he looks like when he eventually returns from his torn patellar injury. But if he isn’t the defender he was beforehand, he might not be able to justify having a major role on a nightly basis.

Even Steven Adams has his shortcomings. While his post game has improved, he lacks the assertiveness to command the ball and take advantage of his size and dexterity. Furthermore, his inability to space the floor takes is a burden on the offense.

Speaking of which, it’s players like Terrance Ferguson and Hamidou Diallo that limit Adams’ potential. As promising as Ferguson might be, or as impressive as Diallo has been thus far, their poor three-point shooting allows defenders to sag off and clog the paint, preventing drives and easy finishes around the basket.

Draft Projects Often Take Time and Experience Growing Pains

Players like Ferguson and Diallo are the type Presti has fallen in love with during the draft. Raw, hyper athletic wings that lack a polished jump shot. Heck, Russell Westbrook mostly fit that description when he was coming out of UCLA in 2008. The Thunder are banking on their player development program to mold these athletes into adequate NBA wings. The problem is doing this at the NBA level comes at a price.

Ferguson specifically stands out because of his slow start. Take the two games against the Clippers and the Kings. Playing a combined 36 minutes, Ferguson shot 2-13 from the field, and 1-9 on threes. During those games, he had offensive ratings of 68 and 39, with defensive ratings of 117 and 123.

Those aren’t NBA ready stats. While he’s shown flashes, Ferguson clearly isn’t ready to be a heavy every night contributor. That’s fine, considering he’s only 20 years old. This organization is determined to get him minutes and experience at the NBA level. But again, this comes at a cost. This is a win-now team, and in the Western conference, you can’t afford to let games slip because you’re trying to develop talent.

Again, Presti’s wild attraction to these young super-athletes has allowed more mature players to pass by. Last year, I wrote an article citing how current Raptors wing O.G. Anunoby might be the one who got away. While coming off an ACL injury, he was clearly more developed on both sides of the ball than Ferguson. For a team desperate for two-way play, Anunoby was the perfect NBA-ready piece. Presti opted for the bigger project, who yes in theory might have a higher upside, but also a significantly lower floor.

Not Enough Attention Goes Toward Shooting

This brings me back to the lack of shooting, specifically from the role players that has crippled this team for so long. Outside of Paul George, the Thunder really only have one above average three-point shooter in Alex Abrines. The problem is that he has never truly been able to earn the trust of the coaching staff to play long minutes, mainly due to defensive issues. You could list this as a Donovan issue, but it could also be an organizational philosophy where unless you are Russell Westbrook, it doesn’t matter how good your offense is if you can’t live up to the defensive expectations.

This mindset has plagued the OKC Thunder early on this season. This tweet from ESPN Thunder reporter Royce Young perfectly encapsulates the Thunder’s difficulty shooting. The first two sentences particularly stand out.

Maybe the Thunder are learning. Abrines did close the game against the Celtics, one of the team’s “better” results. He hit two threes to help the Thunder extend their lead late in the fourth quarter, until the Celtics closed the game on a 16-1 run.

One elite bench shooter isn’t enough. And while the Thunder are sure to break out of their slump at some point, the team will continually have games where it can’t hit water from a boat. In today’s league of increased pace, three-point shooting, and lack of emphasis on defense, shooting is essential now more than ever. Presti did say earlier in the season he would like to have more shooting, but talk is cheap and unless things change drastically over the next few games, he might have to go out and make a move.

The point in all of this is that it doesn’t matter who the coach is, if the team isn’t properly constructed to thrive in today’s NBA.