History dictates OKC Thunder are headed for postseason via the 20 game performance theory
Historically the quarter pole is a strong indicator of determining playoff squads. Based on this measure the OKC Thunder are playoff bound. But this crazy season may blow up this previously accurate theory.
A general rule of thumb in predicting season outcomes has long been where each squad sits after 20 games – or the quarter pole. Relying entirely on this method the OKC Thunder are among the group who should be smiling.
That’s not to say there isn’t work to be done, particularly as OKC still have 63 games left to play. Technically the Thunder won’t have reached the quarter pole until they play Wednesday night versus the Cavaliers.
Ten teams have games in hand to play this week to reach 20. In the east, the Cavaliers and Heat have one more game and the Pistons have three to play.
In the West, seven squads have games in hand to reach 20 games played. The Grizzlies and Lakers will get to 20 tonight when they play the Raptors and Nuggets respectively. Four will reach the mark on Wednesday, November 28 (Thunder, Clippers, Rockets and Suns). And, the Mavericks are the lone west team with two games left to play (Wednesdays vs. Rockets and Friday vs. Lakers).
I mentioned in the Power Ranking Week 5 post I’d be looking at this phenomenon this week. The premise was first noted by stats master John Schuhmann and not surprisingly he brought it up in his power ranking article Monday.
The reason this predictor is so compelling is the accuracy with which it has delivered.
The Schuhmann Files:
This summer John Schuhmannproduced an article marking this interesting predictor. Certainly, the thinking behind why 20 games is a good benchmark makes sense given teams have established their identity, transitioned through offseason changes and earmarked their weaknesses.
In his August 13, 2018 article, Schuhmann points out history shows teams with fewer than nine wins in the East or 11 in the West after 20 games are unlikely to make the postseason.
"In the Eastern Conference over the last 15 seasons, a 9-11 team through 20 games has been much more likely to reach the playoffs than an 8-12 team. In the West, the threshold has been higher. Over the last 15 seasons, an 11-9 team has been much more likely to make the Western Conference playoffs than one that started 10-10."
Of course, the exception last season was our very own OKC Thunder who was one of four squads in the past 15 years to break that trend.
"The Oklahoma City Thunder overcame an 8-12 start in the West last season, but over the last 15 seasons, only four of the 79 teams that won fewer than seven of their first 20 games went on to make the playoffs. All four were in the East."
Schuhmann referred to the same dynamic in his Monday power ranking list (I had a feeling he would cite this dynamic in his power rankings this week, which is why I held off posting this article until today).
I’m glad I waited because Schuhmann offered further insight from last season and overall percentages to prove his point.
"On average, about 14 of the 16 teams that eventually make the playoffs are in the top eight at the quarter mark of the season. At the quarter mark last season, seven of the eight eventual Eastern Conference playoff teams were no worse than tied for eighth place in the conference, with the 10-11 Miami Heat (one game out of eighth) being the lone exception. The same thing was true in the West, where the 8-12 Oklahoma City Thunder were the only eventual playoff team that wasn’t in the top eight through Nov. 29."
Of all the points Schuhmann makes the most intriguing is the 12 win factor.
"Over the last 15 (full) seasons, 92 percent of teams that had at least 12 wins through their first 20 games went on to make the playoffs, while only five percent of teams with six or fewer wins through their first 20 games turned things around and made the postseason."
Therefore, let’s examine the teams and measure their records to this 20 game mark.