History dictates OKC Thunder are headed for postseason via the 20 game performance theory
Western squads most likely to make the cut::
This conference is so much more difficult to predict given how many squads are perennial contenders and their experience of knowing how to get to the show.
The big question in the west is can the Clippers, Nuggets, Lakers and Kings retain their seeds and will any of the six unseeded teams replace them? That’s a lot of teams given there are only 15 in the conference. In essence, it means only the Suns are confirmed lottery bound at this point.
Denver has a vested interest and motivation to make the playoffs after missing out by a single win the past two seasons. Their recent recovery from the losing streak indicates they’re committed to doing what’s necessary (and their depth is undeniable).
Although I don’t think the Lakers roster makes logical sense they have that guy LeBron James who’ll go BeastBron Mode if necessary to drag them to the postseason so they’re likely in the mix too.
Arguably the most intriguing seeded squads are the Clippers and Grizzlies who are showcasing relevant statistical standout production. To wit, ESPN power ranking this week notes only two squads (the Raptors and Clippers) keep teams effective field goal percent under 50 percent.
"The Raptors are one of only two NBA teams holding opponents to an effective field goal percentage under 50 percent (Clippers)."
The Clippers are winning via committee and defense while the Grizzlies are relying on the Conley-Gasol connection and defense. These are two teams I’ll need those 40 games I mentioned above prior to anointing them playoff bound.
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Of the six current unseeded squads a healthy Anthony Davis is hard to bet against. And, Pelicans ownership should be moving heaven and earth to bolster the team via trades. Failing to reach the postseason would likely result in ensuring AD’s departure when he hits free agency (which is already tenuous).
I stated preseason the Rockets depth and defense were issues and I stand by that. Still, they’ve got James Harden, Chris Paul, P.J. Tucker, Clint Capela and Eric Gordon. Plus Daryl Morey will make trades as necessary to ensure they make the cut (with Gordon likely being the best carrot he has to dangle).
Bottom line I’ll revisit this assessment after 40 games, but for now, I’m only confident in predicting six teams which are the OKC Thunder, Golden State Warriors, Denver Nuggets, Portland Trail Blazers, LA Lakers and Houston Rockets.
The remaining two spots will be comprised from the Grizzlies, Clippers, Pelicans and Spurs. At this point, I think the Jazz, Kings and Wolves will miss the cut.
Next. Thunder coach Billy Donovan is finally getting his way. dark
Looking back to last season and the final week of play and game 82 so much was still up in the air. This season I think could blow that out of the water and won’t be surprised if not only the majority of west seeds gets determined by game 82, but also if at least half of the west’s seeds are too.
Fasten your seatbelts fans, this is going to be a fun ride.