Keys to the game
3-point defense
The last time these two teams met, Oklahoma City allowed Dallas to shoot an inexcusable 48.3 percent from deep (14-29). Rick Carlisle‘s men used a 34-point second quarter where they shot 72.2 percent from the field (13-18) and 75 percent from distance (6-8) to build what would be an insurmountable lead. The Mavericks rank middle of the league in 3-point percentage (16th) at 35 percent and attempt the seventh most 3-pointers per game at 33.7 per game.
The Thunder are one of the NBA’s best at defending the 3-point line, holding opponents to 33.6 percent shooting (4th) on 29.8 attempts (8th). While the team has done well thus far, they are prone to defensive lapses where they allow a barrage of shooters to go off in two-three minute blocks. In Oklahoma City’s previous match-up with Dallas, the Thunder missed rotations and allowed shooters any shot they wanted.
In order for OKC to position themselves for the win, they need to keep Dallas’ shooters in check. If they allow another 48.3 percent shooting performance from range, OKC will find it tough to stay in the game.
Dominate the glass
OKC must use its size and dominate the glass. At this juncture, the Thunder rank first in offensive rebounds (13.0), eighth on the defensive glass (35.8) and second in total rebounds (48.7). In contrast, Dallas lies 15th in offensive rebounding (10.4), 12th in defensive boards (34.9) and 13th in total rebounds (45.3).
While the Mavericks are a middle of the road rebounding squad, they get completely demolished by strong offensive rebounders. In the team’s previous match-up, the Thunder held a massive 26-4 offensive rebounding advantage but failed to capitalize on the extra possessions. OKC shot 20 more field-goal attempts but made five fewer field-goals overall.
Steven Adams completely dominated DeAndre Jordan inside and Westbrook back in the line-up (after missing the previous meeting with Dallas), the Big Kiwi gets an opportunity to concentrate solely on the offensive boards.
The Thunder need to dominate inside and patrol the paint to give itself the best possible chance to walk out with the W.
Shooting consistency
After struggling to hit a shot to begin the season, Oklahoma City has made their way up the ladder and currently sit 14th in overall field goal percentage (45.9). While the team’s offense is somewhat of a lottery depending on what shots they elect to take, OKC has done a better job picking and choosing spots.
Despite shooting solidly from the field, the Thunder continues to paddle from distance. Oklahoma City is shooting an abysmal 32.7 percent from beyond the arc (29th) on 30 attempts per game (19th). In their previous match-up with Dallas, the Thunder shot 39.2 percent from the field, 26.3 percent from three and 61.1 percent from the line but surprisingly lost the points in the paint battle 52-48.
OKC must find a way to convert extra buckets inside. With Westbrook back in the fold, I suspect the Thunder will find ways to convert more in the paint and dominate the interior.