Everyone must show up:
San Antonio began the season with a depleted backcourt. It began in the offseason when Tony Parker exited in free agency, and my favorite reserve man Manu Ginobili retired. Then Dejounte Murray tore his ACL and rookie Lonnie Walker also got injured missing basically the entire first half forcing Gregg Popovich to make tweaks.
On top of this San Antonio’s top two players aren’t 3-point shooters but mid-range specialists. But, that’s the thing about Pops he’ll always figure out a way to pull a Project Runway and as Tim Gunn says and ‘make it work’.
And, that’s precisely what the Spurs did. DeMar DeRozan who worked on increasing his passing last season has stepped up those efforts in San Antonio. Without Murray, DeRozan has functioned as the Spurs de facto point guard and is registering career high assists (6.2) and rebounds (6.4). Although he’s also registering a career low from the perimeter (17.5 percent).
Bottom line, through 41 games the Spurs have figured out how to best utilize their team and that’s precisely what they do — utilize everyone!
"Their success has been about both the starters and the bench, as all nine rotation guys rank in the top 13 in cumulative plus-minus (plus-112 or better) over the last month."
Cutting to the chase – for the Thunder to win they’ll need the bench to play well which will be a tall task given Nerlens Noel won’t play.
Crash the boards and cut off the passing lanes:
Two key areas stand out in the Spurs wins versus their losses — defensive rebounding and assist. In wins, the Spurs collect 37.3 defensive rebounds and 26.9 assists. In losses, those numbers drop to 32.3 and 21.6 respectively.
Steven Adams will need help on the glass particularly because the Spurs have a slew of frontcourt players who’ll crash the glass. DeRozan can be rushed and forced into making bad passes, but keep your eye on his feet because he may well have the best footwork in the NBA and can get himself out of trouble in a heartbeat.
Return to strengths:
The Spurs consistently play within their system and aren’t a team who can be forced into doing something another team wants.
Diving into key areas where the Thunder hold advantages all tie into miscellaneous categories. Although OKC has the ability to force turnovers (rank second) the Spurs turn the ball over the fewest times (12.3) per game. OKC also rank high in scoring on second chances (4th) and in fast break opportunities (5th).
The problem is the Thunder haven’t been capitalizing on these strengths recently which may be why they are losing. After the 0-4 start, the Thunder won 21 of their next 27 games. Since then the Thunder are 4-5. In the past 10 games two of those key areas of strengths have slipped:
Points off turnovers – dropped to 10th
Second chance points: dropped to13th
Since the Spurs played on Wednesday it means the Thunder have the rest advantage and forcing the pace could help their cause. San Antonio run the 24th ranked pace whereas OKC run the fourth fastest pace.