If Howard doesn’t pan out for LA, OKC Thunder center Nerlens Noel offers perfect fit
The Howard – Noel comparison:
Enter the OKC Thunder who could offer a solution. That player for OKC is Nerlens Noel who might be the perfect fit alongside Anthony Davis and LeBron James. He certainly would be a stay at home big who would offer rim protection and rebounding. Those are the preeminent requirements the Lakers are asking from Howard.
Comparing the two big men isn’t necessarily an apples to apples comparison given Howard has always been a starter whereas Noel’s role is now coming off the bench. The big advantage of Noel is at 24 he’s almost a decade younger than the 33 year old Howard. Keeping in mind the experience Howard brings and the additional minutes he plays I pulled numbers looking at per 36 minutes and per 100 possessions. Even these stats are skewed, however, since Howard missed most of last season due to a gluteal injury.
Per 36 minutes:
| Rk | Player | FGA | FG% | 2PA | 2P% | FTA | FT% | ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dwight Howard | 10.8 | .623 | 10.8 | .623 | 7.5 | .604 | 3.8 | 9.2 | 13.0 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 18.0 |
| 2 | Nerlens Noel | 9.4 | .587 | 9.4 | .587 | 2.7 | .684 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 11.1 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 12.9 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/24/2019.
In the comparison, Howard’s numbers will have a clear advantage from his 15 years in the league and All-Star early seasons boosting his numbers. Still, the numbers aren’t quite as skewed as one would expect. While Howard’s field goal percent and rebounding are better, Noel posts better assists, significantly more steals and is a much better free throw shooter.
Per 100 possessions:
| Rk | Player | FGA | FG% | 2PA | 2P% | FTA | FT% | ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | PTS | ORtg | DRtg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dwight Howard | 14.2 | .623 | 14.2 | .623 | 9.9 | .604 | 4.9 | 12.1 | 17.1 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 23.7 | 116 | 111 |
| 2 | Nerlens Noel | 12.2 | .587 | 12.2 | .587 | 3.5 | .684 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 14.4 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 16.7 | 122 | 99 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/24/2019.
Diving into the per 100 possessions Noel suddenly stands out in many more categories and ones that the Lakers would be keen for their center to focus on. A big win for Noel is his offensive rebounding but again the assist and steals categories are owned by Noel and he absolutely shatters Howard in an area Dwight use to own – blocks.
Defensive comparison:
The final area to consider is defense which is yet another specific area of concern for the Lakers. In recent years LeBron takes off defensive possessions in season, Davis has been caught doing the same thing and Kuzma is not a stalwart on that side of the hardwood. At one time Dwight Howard was a defensive beast but his prowess in this area has declined. Between his age combined with the more mobile bigs of the new era who stretch center out to the perimeter, Howard’s regression is palpable.
| Rk | Player | PER | TS% | ORB% | DRB% | TRB% | AST% | STL% | BLK% | OBPM | DBPM | BPM | VORP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dwight Howard | 17.4 | .638 | 11.1 | 28.3 | 19.6 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | -2.9 | -2.3 | -5.2 | -0.2 | |
| 2 | Nerlens Noel | 19.3 | .608 | 12.1 | 20.0 | 15.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 7.7 | -1.6 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/24/2019.
Again Noel’s dominance in assist, steal and block percentage is notable. But, diving into the offensive and defensive box plus/minus offer a surprising dominance by Noel over Howard particularly on defense (minus 2.3 versus plus 5.5 for Noel).