Early signs indicate players are buying into OKC Thunder revamped offense

It’s only one game, however, stats provide evidence the OKC Thunder reformatted offense can make a difference to the big picture.

Sure, it’s just one game so we can’t put too much stead in the stats and results. That said, despite the extremely too small sample, it’s important for the OKC Thunder to use this as a measuring stick in terms of whether the team is adopting the new offensive habits.

Specifically, that means are the players moving and is the ball zipping. Has the team stopped stalling offensively and even if things look a little stilted at times are the players committed to the new habits?

To that end, since media day the one clear objective stated by management, the coaching staff, and OKC Thunder players was ball and player movement. Again, a single preseason game is far too small a sample to offer definitive proof but there are positive signs. Billy Donovan and his staff can run film examples as proof the strategy can work. Likewise, the film will also offer occasions, the players reverted to iso ball or forced shots and passes.

Topline stats offer a slight uptick in assists with 24.0 in the game compared to a per game average of 23.4 last season. Although that may seem like a minute difference it’s not necessarily the total assists that are the best indicator.  Six different players had two or more assists for example instead of a single player collecting either half of the total or the majority.

If the team commits to these principles it will increase the difficulty for opposing clubs to defend OKC. If only one or two players are creating shots then opposing teams can cut off their passing lanes and either force them to drive into traffic or become the primary scorer. Think back to the past few postseasons and how the Thunder offense ground to a halt as evidence to this.

Other more definitive areas to check for progress would be assist ratio, assist percentage and assist to turnover stats. These are a little more detailed taking in different factors. The definitions for each are:

"Assist Ratio:  Assist Ratio is the number of assists a player averages per 100 possessions usedAssist Percentage:  The percentage of teammate field goals a team assisted onAssist to Turnover: The number of assists for a player or team compared to the number of turnovers they have committed"

*Definitions per NBA.com

Each offers a different way to measure assists although it should be noted each has its own pluses and minuses. For example, pace isn’t part of these measurements and when examining these stats for individual players it doesn’t take into account usage rate. For those interested in a full explanation Michael Badger of Hoops Habit wrote a detailed article on the subject.

In the game versus the Mavericks, the Thunder recorded a 17.4 assist ratio which ranks them 19th of the 37 teams participating in preseason. In contrast, the Thunder ranked 27th (16.3) last season in this stat category.

Likewise, the Thunder ranked 26th (54.8 percent) in assist percentage last season. The 25th (58.5 percent) is still a low rank but shows growth in terms of the number of shots coming off assists.

Finally, the assist to turnover stat while effective is the one stat of the three which this early in the stage will be misleading. The reason is while the team adopts this new system they are bound to make more mistakes than usual. Factor in how unfamiliar the players are with each other. To wit, Chris Paul and Steven Adams are still developing a rhythm and comfort level with each other. CP3 isn’t going to typically turn the ball over five times in a game. He averaged 2.6 per game last season and 2.4 per game in his career.

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The assist to turnover places the Thunder 23rd with 1.20 assist per turnovers made. The early takeaway is this is an improvement over last season’s 1.67 assists/turnover rate (ranked 17th).

The larger picture is it’s likely the team will improve as the season progresses given the primary ballhandlers are the trio of point guards who all typically take great care of the ball. As noted CP3 is a career 2.4 A/TO player while  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (1.7 in 2018-19) and Dennis Schroder (1.7 last season and 1.4 career) are also low turnover players typically. As the team spends more time developing chemistry it should equate to fewer turnovers even with an increase in player and ball movement.

Other stats that will be more conducive to offer insights once more games are played are total passes and secondary assists (or what some call the hockey assist). These two stats highlight the lack of ball movement of the 2018-19 Thunder club as they ranked dead last for total passes and 29th on secondary assists (2.2). For perspective, the NBA champion Raptors ranked first for secondary assists (4.0).

Finally, there is the visual proof of what we witness on court, as several players didn’t collect the dime stat but they were actively swinging the ball to keep the momentum of the motion in progress. For example, Deonte Burton and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander collected one cumulative assist but both were integral to the motion strategy.

Ultimately, there was far less iso ball and while at times the rhythm was a bit herky-jerky remembering this is a work in progress, it’s better to experience the slight growing pains as opposed to reverting to old (bad) habits.

For those wanting to rely on the eye test, watch tonight for which players are moving without the ball as well as those who immediately swing the ball in order to keep the ball moving.

While it was just one game the early signs are the team is, in fact, buying into the new offense. Overall it makes for an entertaining brand of basketball so Thunder Nation also has that to look forward to this season.