The OKC Thunder are in more games at clutch time than any other club but if they improved their starts they could also improve their win total.
With the quarter pole squarely in our sights, the statistics offer enough evidence to gauge where the OKC Thunder is performing well and where they need to grow. To that end, a few commonalities have surfaced about the Thunder. The main one would be the club pushes teams to the horn and more often than not are in matches at clutch time which is something any team in the association wants.
In fact, more than any other club in the association OKC has taken teams into this clutch time. Unfortunately, the Thunder record doesn’t show how competitive they are given most of those matches have resulted in losses.
Last night versus the Blazers the team got routed which initially we’d say is an outlier since it was only the second time (Indiana Pacers) this season they’ve been soundly beaten and not in a position to win in the final frame.
The Portland loss was nothing at all like what the fan base has grown accustomed to. That fact alone served to remind us how lucky we’ve been. Even though the losses are piling up at least the games are entertaining. Imagine if the 11 losses this year were all of this blow out fashion. Sure, OKC would still be looking good for a high draft pick but the games themselves wouldn’t keep our attention.
Which brings me to a concerning statistic that is happening all too frequently. The absolutely TERRIBLE starts.
Scanning the totality of the team’s 17 games played to date the Thunder have won the first quarter on just six occasions. In four of those incidences the team won and in the two losses the team lost the third quarter by a sizeable margin.
First quarter results:
Thunder results are the first number listed:
- Jazz – Oct. 23 (loss): 12 – 23
- Wizards – Oct. 25 (loss): 24 – 28
- Warriors – Oct. 27 (win): 35 – 20
- Rockets – Oct 28 (loss): 35 – 22 – OKC surrendered 39-18 in third quarter – lost by four
- Blazers – Oct. 30 (loss): 17- 24
- Pelicans – Nov. 2 (win): 33 – 26
- Magic – Nov. 5 (win): 31 -26
- Spurs – Nov. 7 (loss): 30 -33
- Warriors – Nov. 9 (win): 36 – 27
- Bucks, -Nov. 10 (loss): 24 – 21 – OKC surrendered 34 – 24 third quarter – lost by two
- Pacers – Nov. 12 (loss): 25 -31
- 76ers – Nov. 15 (win): 24 – 29
- Clippers – Nov. 18 (loss): 17 – 23
- Lakers – Nov. 19 (loss): 28 – 33
- Lakers – Nov. 22 (loss): 33 – 34
- Warriors – Nov. 25 (win): 25 -28
- Blazers – Nov. 27 (loss): 26 – 42
Scoring by quarter:
To decipher where (or more accurately when) the Thunder performs the best I looked at scoring. Specifically, the points scored by OKC and their opponents by quarter and the associated ranking. All stats pulled from NBA.com stats.
Thunder scoring by quarter:
First: 26.8 points – rank 20th
Second: 27.9 points – ranked 14th
Third: 25.8 points – rank 26th
Fourth: 25.8 points – rank 27th
Opponent scoring by quarter:
First: 27.6 points – rank 20th
Second: 25.0 points – ranked 2nd
Third: 31.0 points – rank 29th
Fourth: 24.5 points – rank 2nd
Clearly the team is at their best offensively in the second quarter and defensively in both the second and fourth quarters.
Considering how often this Thunder squad takes teams to the horn to decide the victor imagine how many more wins the team would have if they simply began games (and came out after the half) with the same intensity with which they finish games.
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They don’t even have to win every first quarter; they simply need to establish their aggressiveness earlier and keep the score close. It’s hard to isolate a reason why the team starts so poorly other than focus or preparation. If OKC was starting all their youngsters their start could be more easily explained, but that’s not the case.
This is Chris Paul‘s 15th season, Danilo Gallinari‘s 11th and Steven Adams 7th so there is ample experience in the starting rotation. Terrance Ferguson is in his third year and while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is only in his sophomore season he plays with a veteran mentality.
So what is the resolution? Some teams who’ve dealt with this issue in the past have altered the shoot around to make it occur closer to when the team takes to the court for the tip off and likewise, have them come out of the locker room earlier between halves so they are physically and mentally focused.
Additionally, the team is clearly more defensively focused in the second and fourth quarters which would seemingly be effort based and more of a mental situation such as being more focused to start the game and after the half.
The fact the Thunder are so strong defensively in the second and final frame speaks to their ability. On it’s own a strong second quarter would suggest the reserves are the reason, but the fact the club limits opponent scoring in fourth quarters erases that take. Moving forward, it’s a matter of stretching out their effort over the entire 48 minutes.
There isn’t one specific resolution to the problem but a good starting point would be for Donovan to make fixing this inbalance a priority. Getting the team focused in his pregame and half time speeches would be a good start.