How stretch schedule could affect OKC Thunder final seeding

Originally this post was set to go up at the start of last week and considered 10 best offensive and defensive ranked teams. Despite most teams playing only two games, those designations shifted and therefore all the data was revised to reflect those changes.

Specifically, there were three shifts last week including the Spurs falling out of the top 10 offensively (Raptors in) while Denver and Utah fell out of the top 10 defenses with the  Thunder and Magic replacing them. It’s actually top 11 because the Bulls and Pacers are tied for the 10th ranked defense.

Additionally, the original list reflected all games from the break. Every team played (between one and three games) between Thursday and Sunday. Therefore each breakdown begins at the start of week 19.

NOTE: since the research for this article was completed before games played on Monday, February 24th the Grizzlies were counted as an above .500 team. Likewise, the Nets and Magic are sub .500 teams but seeded seventh and eighth so they’ve been noted separately.

The battle for West seeds two through seven:

Up first, let’s look at six teams including the OKC Thunder who hold the second through seventh seeds. The goal of these clubs is to climb as high as possible and maneuver to avoid either the Lakers, Clippers or both, especially in the first round.

Teams are presented in order of current seeds (second through seventh). Each team is presented noting the number of games to complete following the break separated by home versus road matches. Those games are dissected further highlighting how many plus .500 opponents are in the queue and back-to-back sets remaining. Additionally, the number of games facing top 10 offenses and defenses is highlighted.

Nuggets:

Games remaining: 25
Home: 12
Road: 13
Teams over .500: 14
Top 10 offenses: 11
Top 10 defenses: 10
Back to back sets: Three
Games versus WC seeds 1-8: 10

Clippers:

Games remaining: 26
Home: 13
Road: 13 (includes rescheduled Lakers game on April 9th)
Teams over .500: 12, plus two games versus seeded Nets
Top 10 offenses: Seven
Top 10 defenses: Nine
Back to back sets: Three
Games versus WC seeds 1-8: Nine

Rockets:

Games remaining: 26
Home: 14
Road: 12
Teams over .500: 11 (plus one game versus seeded Magic)
Top 10 offenses: Seven
Top 10 defenses: Nine
Back to back sets: Three
Games versus WC seeds 1-8: Six

Jazz:

Games remaining: 26
Home: 14
Road: 12
Teams over .500: 12
Top 10 offenses: Nine
Top 10 defenses: Nine
Back to back sets: Four
Games versus WC seeds 1-8: Nine

OKC Thunder:

Games remaining: 25
Home: 10
Road: 15
Teams over .500: 13 plus one game versus seeded Nets
Top 10 offenses: 11
Top 10 defenses: *Six
Back to back sets: Five
Games versus WC seeds 1-8: 10

*Notably, one week can make a big difference since both the Jazz and Nuggets fell out of the top 10 defenses. Subsequently, OKC plays only six top 10 defenses whereas last week they would’ve been tasked with playing 11. Variance like this will occur as games are played, but for the moment this is a better situation for the Thunder.

Mavericks:

Games remaining: 25
Home: 12
Road: 13
Teams over .500: 12 (plus one game against the Nets)
Top 10 offenses: Eight
Top 10 defenses: Seven
Back to back sets: Four
Games versus WC seeds 1-8: Nine

All six teams have winning road records although the Clippers, Jazz and Rockets are more susceptible away from their home courts. Each of the squads will play between three and five back-to-back sets.

The Thunder and Nuggets play the most top ten offenses. Denver also plays the most top 10  defenses while the Thunder and Mavericks play the fewest. Denver (14) also plays the most teams with records above .500 (15) while each of the other teams plays between 11 and 13 plus .500 clubs.

Based on the above factors the Clippers have the easiest route to the second seed (and top seed if the Lakers falter). The Rockets also have an easier schedule than their counterparts but may need to make tweaks in the small ball system if issues arise versus strong defensive squads who have a host of big men.

Tankathon cites the Nuggets strength of schedule as the most difficult from this group of six and OKC Thunder the third hardest. This is debatable depending on how much you value rest (extra back-to-back sets), home versus road and having to play elite teams on both sides of the court.

Other factors play a role such as how many times these teams play seeded opponents in their own conference.

Of the six teams in this group here’s where Tankathon ranks them:

• Nuggets (11)
• Jazz (15)
• OKC Thunder (16)
• Mavericks (18)
• Rockets (21)
• Clippers (24)