Re-grading the OKC Thunder Paul George trade – one season later

How has Paul George fared back home?

In his final four games since that article, the Clippers beat the OKC Thunder, Rockets, and Warriors but lost to the Lakers. In the wins, Doc Rivers was able to keep him under 30 minutes while his best performance came in the loss to the Lakers (31 points, six rebounds, three assists, three steals and a block in just under 37 minutes).

The following basketball reference chart factors in the additional four games and minor fluctuation since the original article.

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/6/2020.

Although George is no longer functioning as the 1A man his production has regressed. Specifically, he’s scoring seven points less while also taking five fewer field goal attempts, almost two fewer perimeter shots (although his percentage of shots attempted from this range has increased), and gets to the charity stripe 2.5 times less on average. He’s grabbing 2.5 fewer boards and his steals are cut from 2.2 to 1.3.

Much of this minor offensive decline can be tied to Leonard’s presence, the Clippers’ depth, and the fact he’s playing fewer minutes.

Dive a little deeper, however, and there are some statistics which could elicit a few red flags…

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/6/2020.

The advanced stats offer some food for thought. His PER is only slightly down, his true shooting percentage is almost identical and there is an argument it was inevitable he would get less free throws by virtue of Leonard drawing the ‘star calls’ instead of George.

The areas of concern lie elsewhere in his advanced metric. Despite playing fewer minutes his turnover volume is up and the win shares are dramatically reduced on both sides of the hardwood from 7.0 to 1.9 offensively and 4.9 to 2.0 defensively.

For those who prefer to examine the box plus-minus for a player’s effect these areas are also down: 3.4 versus 5.6 offensively and 1.1  versus 1.6 defensively (2019-20 listed first).

But there is a glaring blinking light in his on-off court defensive stats. Per NBA stats the Clippers allow teams to score 110.7 points when Paul is on the court and only 103. 5 when he sits. Putting this in perspective, Lou Williams who earns accolades for his offense but is oft-cited as a defensive sieve posts an on-court defensive rating of 106.9 – – almost four fewer points scored when he is on the court versus PG.

Granted, between injuries and the wealth of Clippers depth there hasn’t been an opportunity to build constancy on the defensive side of the court. Proving the point that it’s the defensive side of the court that teams benefit most from repetition. And, in fairness, the Clippers have been downright scary defensively when they are locked in.

As a team, the Clippers are second in the West entering the bubble with a record of 44-20 with five additional victories over their total last season (39-25) at this stage. It has to be mentioned the OKC Thunder has just four fewer wins and Leonard’s old team has two additional victories and has dealt with legitimate non-load-managed injuries to their core all season.

That said, what George has accomplished through 42 appearances and what he provides in the eight seeding games in Orlando doesn’t matter. The only thing he’ll be judged on is how he performs in the postseason and more accurately whether the Clippers win the title.

Before a re-grade is assigned let’s look at the impact of the trade on the OKC Thunder.