Analyst Chris Dempsey prefers OKC Thunder – Nuggets first round series

Thunder arguably worst matchup for Nuggets

If the seeds remain the same Denver would play Houston and notably all four games these squads played occurred prior to the shift to the Rockets small-ball system. In the two victories over the Jazz, Bojan Bogdanovic scored 16 and 18 points and shot six of ten from deep in the latter and he is out for the restart due to injury.

In fairness to Dempsey, it’s understandable why he wouldn’t prefer to play the Mavericks based on the matchup. However, it’s interesting he would quickly call out the Thunder over both the Jazz and Rockets.

Looking at the key stat categories of offensive (O), defensive (D) and net differential (N), the Nuggets rank 9th (0), 12th (D) and 9th (N) the Rockets rank 2nd (0), 16th (D) and 7th (N), the Jazz rank 8th (0), 11th (D) and 8th (N), and the OKC Thunder rank 14th (0), 9th (D) and 11th (N).

Dempsey may have wanted to pay more attention to his point about the Thunder post-All-Star Break improvement. After the break, the Thunder improved in two of the three categories posting the 11th (O), 10th (D), and 10th (D) while the Jazz and Nuggets both regressed particularly on defense to 23rd and 19th respectively.

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• Damian Lillard does not fit with the OKC Thunder

Diving a little deeper the Rockets score the third-most points (25.7) points in transition ranking in the 65.5 percentile or 11th overall. Defensively, the Nuggets transition defense is in the 35.5 percentile ranking 20th which could be why Dempsey is wary of them. But, why he wouldn’t prefer the Jazz is a mystery.

Presumably, Demsey is basing his theory more on the Nuggets isolation defense that ranks seventh. Ironically the three best offensive isolation teams are the Rockets, Jazz, and Thunder.

Let’s not forget all these games are being played in the Disney bubble, for all intents and purposes — road games. This season the Nuggets are 18-14 on the road compared to the OKC Thunder 20-11. However, OKC was 16-2 in their last 18 road matches while the Nuggets were 10-9.

Ignoring the fact the Nuggets lose their main advantage of playing at home in high altitude there is also that little matter of clutch time situations. The OKC Thunder OWN that segment of games (29-13), but in fairness, the Nuggets rank just behind them (26-14).  Yet again, the post All-Star Break factors with the Thunder going 5-0 while the Nuggets were .500 posting a 3-3 record in the same schedule segment.

Clearly, there are endless statistics we can dive into to compare the matchups, but basing the ideal opponent strictly on logic the Utah Jazz should be the team the Nuggets desire (just like the Thunder should) and because of the lack of bigs the Rockets should be second.

Ultimately, it’s like the note at the top — be careful what you wish for – you might just get it and then regret making that wish!

*all stats courtesy of NBA stats and Synergy