OKC Thunder: Do Billy Donovan’s substitutions offer hints of pecking order?

OKC Thunder coach Billy Donovan’s substitutions in seeding games will offer hints to his playoff pecking order

In the first seeded game of the season restart, the OKC Thunder easily defeated the Utah Jazz. While it’s far too early and small of a sample size to say definitively there were some hints from head coach Billy Donovan on what his substitution order will be.

Or more specifically, what that pecking order is.

First and most obvious is the fact Luguentz Dort continues to be in the starting rotation alongside Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Danilo Gallinari, and Steven Adams.

Continuing the same pattern from the 64 games played prior to the restart Dennis Schroder and Nerlens Noel are the first off the bench.

This has worked all season and is smart since these two vets are capable and it also affords Donovan a chance to keep Chris Paul and Steven Adams rested and hopefully healthy to finish the season. While their minutes in the playoffs may get extended, for now, there is no reason to alter what is working.

Seeding games offer hints of Donovan’s playoff pecking order

The big question was who among the bevy of wings Donovan would tap first. The group includes Hamidou Diallo, Andre Roberson, Terrance Ferguson, Abdel Nader, and Deonte Burton. Entering the scrimmages is was the main concentration we noted to pay attention to and further analyzed after the scrimmages were completed.

Burton is a non-entity having seemingly entrenched himself so deeply in the dog house he will only see playing time if there are multiple injuries. To wit, don’t be surprised if these days in Orlando are the last games we’ll see Burton in a Thunder jersey.

Nader has established himself as a reliable 3-point threat and consistently puts in the work. He’s learned that valuable skill of being able to impact a game the minute he checks in. Despite this, his defense pales in comparison to the trio of Diallo, Roberson, and Ferguson.

Ferguson has dealt with personal issues all season and some injuries. His reluctance to take a shot however and seeming lack of aggression have him relegated to the bench and with each step, Diallo and Roberson take he slips further down the ranking list.

Which brings me to Diallo and Roberson. For the moment, based on the Jazz match Diallo was the player who is leading the wing group as Donovan’s choice. He was the first off the bench versus the Jazz and played 20 minutes.

Diallo could solidify his role if he can start hitting from the perimeter and mixing it in with his driving athletic ability. To that end, against Utah, he hit both his 3-pointers. He’s also showing more aggression offensively and is one of the best defenders on the club.

Roberson was the second wing off the bench and played early but only for five minutes. The most noteable takeaway here is Roberson got the tap to come in when Schroder got in foul trouble ahead of both Dort and Hami – that speaks to Donovan’s trust of Dre.

The thing is ARob is transferable in many different spots from the two through four roles. He can also defend one through four and in a pinch, small-ball fives.

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For the moment his minutes might not be totally reflective of how Donovan will ultimately use him in the postseason because he’s also keen to get rookie Darius Bazley time especially since he’s made steps over the hiatus.

Moving forward, I’m not sold Donovan won’t look to Dre quicker or more frequently depending on the playoff opponent and what precisely is required. His assignment in the Jazz match was solely to stop Donovan Mitchell which tells us Billy D still sees Andre is a star stopper and that would imply his standing is high and the team is just making sure to bring him back slowly.

When playoffs begin most teams tend to stick with a rotation that is eight or sometimes nine deep. It’s rare for clubs to go ten deep. Yet, because of the long hiatus, all bets are off and we could see teams go ten or even eleven deep (with very small stints for the 10th and 11th guy) just to not overextend the core’s minutes and keep everyone healthy.

We’ll keep an eye on this moving forward, but for now, the pecking order after the starters is:

• 6th: Dennis Schroder
• 7th: Nerlens Noel
• 8th: Hamidou Diallo
• 9th: Andre Roberson
• 10th: Darius Bazley
• 11th: Mike Muscala | Terrance Ferguson | or Abdel Nader depending on the matchup or need
• 12th: Devon Hall | Kevin Hervey | Deonte Burton (only in blowouts)

Given the lengthy hiatus, every team is dealing with finding the proper balance in terms of how quickly they return to their typical playing time.

The torn ACL of Jonathan Isaac is a warning of how soft tissue injuries can occur. In Isaac’s case, he was returning from injury as it was so perhaps the Magic rushed his return or amped up his minutes too quickly.