OKC Thunder: Gilgeous-Alexander’s biggest challenge as the new team leader

Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander prove to be an efficient leader for the OKC Thunder or a just high-volume scorer?

With the OKC Thunder turning the page on playoff contention and voiding the roster of established veterans this offseason, the organization sent a clear message to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He is going to get as many touches and shots as he can handle. The Thunder are now a tanking team, but tanking clubs still shoot, and hopefully, they occasionally hit something.

The organization wants to see exactly what kind of player SGA can truly be. They want to know if he can lead the team while still being efficient. There are lots of players who can chuck shots and score points, but most of them can’t lead a team to contend for a championship.

SGA opportunity as new OKC Thunder leader:

An Impressive Sophomore Surge

In his first season with the Thunder, as an NBA sophomore, Gilgeous-Alexander nearly doubled his production while maintaining the same efficiency as his rookie campaign. If that feat can be repeated, the Thunder just might have their Moses, the man to take them to the promised land.

Gilgeous-Alexander had a promising rookie season with the LA Clippers, putting up nearly eleven points per game on 47/37/80 shooting splits. Those numbers are impressive, but it’s easy to be efficient as the fourth or fifth option on the team.

In that scenario, there’s not as much pressure to engineer offense, are rarely asked to force difficult shots, and the defense devotes less attention. Because of this, a basic trend of basketball statistics usually shows efficiency going down when volume goes up.

Stats That Stick Out

SGA busted that trend, shooting 47/35/80 (essentially the same as his rookie season) on 14.5 shots per game, about 80 percent more attempts than the previous year, on his way to leading the OKC Thunder in scoring. Those numbers are impressive enough, but digging further unearths more jewels.

For instance, 90 percent of Gilgeous-Alexander’s threes were assisted in his rookie season, while just 54 percent were assisted last year. Statistical trends show that catch-and-shoot threes are much easier than 3-pointers shot off the dribble, yet SGA was virtually as efficient from three last year even while taking much more difficult shots.

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/28/2020.

So, can he do it again? Gilgeous-Alexander is already the top-dog on the team, and his two teammates with the most NBA experience are likely to be wearing different uniforms by March.

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With so few quality teammates remaining, not only does he have the defense’s full attention; he also has less help on the floor. SGA’s usage percentage, shot attempts, and even minutes per game are all likely to go up. Maintaining efficiency will be almost impossible.

How to Judge SGA’s OKC Thunder season

It’s conceivable that Gilgeous-Alexander’s efficiency could go down, but this won’t necessarily mean that he’s failing. One way to judge how well meets this challenge is to compare him to a benchmark.

In the 2019-20 season, the leading scorers for the five bottom teams in both conferences averaged 23 points per game on 47 percent shooting from the field. With the OKC Thunder likely to finish in the bottom five in the West this year, this seems like a reasonable mark for the guard to hit.

If he can reach that mark or even exceed it, it will be a good sign that SGA can help take this team to the top. Is he on track to be the Thunder’s Batman, or is he just a Robin? Only time and the stat sheet will tell.