OKC Thunder: 3 keys to victory versus the Nuggets

OKC Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) celebrates after scoring a basket : Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
OKC Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) celebrates after scoring a basket : Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports /
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A well-rested OKC Thunder squad begins a five-game road trip in Denver. Intentions look at three keys to victory over the Nuggets.

If I’d told you prior to the season beginning the OKC Thunder would have a better record than the Denver Nuggets would you have believed it? The same Nuggets squad who went to the Western Conference Finals and came back in two 2020 playoff series after trailing 1-3.

Or how about if I told you this Thunder team full of youngsters would enter week five of action with a 5-1  road record!

For as much as the players, coaches, and internal brain trust all conduct themselves with a competitive, winning mindset this winning can’t keep going at the same pace. Especially not if the Thunder and Sam Presti have desires on netting one of those top three picks in the loaded 2021 draft class.

With all due respect, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (who is BALLING!) and his cohorts also aren’t going to keep surprising teams. The other factors are it’s likely George Hill, Trevor Ariza, and Al Horford are being aggressively shopped. And, the schedule is going to get tougher.

Case in point, this week will be a major test for the Thunder as they begin another five-game road trip. Three games occur in week five with this match in Denver and then the Thunder will travel to LA and play two games in three days versus the Clippers.

Next week they complete the second game of a back-to-back set against the Blazers and finish inPhoenix.

Suffice to say an aggressive objective for a top-tier team would be to go 3-2 on this trip but realistically if the Thunder win two of these five games it would be impressive.

OKC Thunder will have a tall task slowing Nuggets’ offense:

Denver ranks third among all NBA teams for assists per game with 27.2 and likewise ranks third in offensive rating (115.4). The Nuggets also put up the fifth-most points in the association.

With such heady offensive numbers, it would be natural to assume a good portion of points is occurring from points in transition or quick pace. But, that’s not the case. The Nuggets run the 25th slowest pace of all the teams and rank 27th in fast-break points scored.

Clearly, ball movement is a key factor within the Nuggets offense and much of that stems from their two superstars (see next page) but it’s also tied to player movement and offensive rebounding.

Although the Nuggets don’t rebound well on the defensive glass they are second in the NBA on the offensive glass giving them second-chance scoring opportunities where they rank tenth scoring an average of 13.6 per game.