As the OKC Thunder complete the first quarter of the 2020-21 calendar they are overachieving. The preseason predictions all stated the team would be the “easy win” among the clubs in the Western Conference.
Instead, they have registered an 8-10 record through 18 games and reside in the 11th spot in the West. The teams positioned below them are:
- 12th: Sacramento Kings
- 13th: Dallas Mavericks
- 14th: New Orleans Pelicans
- 15th: Minnesota Timberwolves
League-wide they hold the 19th position with many teams located below them who’ll undoubtedly make moves through the next 54 games.
Specifically, the Dallas Mavericks, Miami Heat, and Toronto Raptors are clubs likely to figure things out and move ahead in the standings.
Presumably, the Orlando Magic, Charlotte Hornets, New Orleans Pelicans, and Chicago Bulls will attempt to be in the playoff mix whether on a ladder rung or to position themselves for the play-in tournament.
Those seven squads are the teams the Thunder will hope moves ahead of them if they want to nab one of those coveted bottom rungs in order to translate that situation into a top draft pick.
Tracking the OKC Thunder goal of landing the top draft pick in 2021
Based on what fans have seen through the first quarter the clubs most likely to be competing with the OKC Thunder to nab one of those bottom three seeds are the Washington Wizards, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Detroit Pistons.
Some of the teams currently positioned under the Thunder may alter their goals as the league nears the half-way point and priorities shift. For example, if the Raptors are still struggling will they throw in the towel and decide with such a deep draft class it would behoove them to keep losing and nab a top prospect as opposed to fighting for a lower playoff seed?
The Heat won’t make that choice because it won’t help them to throw games since the Thunder can swap their pick with Miami.
If the Thunder stay on their current pace they are positioned to win 32 games which theoretically would place them as one of the teams in the group competing for a play-in tournament position.
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There are still 54 games to play and as those matches are played there are also a number of things that change with the roster. Trades at the deadline of veterans will be key among them.
As noted above, the other very real factor will be what the Rockets and Heat do in those final games. With the Thunder having the right to swap their pick with whoever has the best lottery pick between that trio of clubs does offer some options.
However, it would be silly to assume Sam Presti will rely on another club to get them a better lottery position.
In future years those draft swaps could be viewed with those glasses but not in a season where the draft class is full of dazzling prospects and the Thunder can control their own destiny.
As much as it feels counterproductive to wish for losses, the reality is that’s precisely what the fanbase and franchise should want. With Cade Cunningham and a host of other talents to choose from this isn’t a season where the Thunder want to chance missing out on a generational talent.