OKC Thunder: Rockets 1R swap will play a vital role in OKC 2021 draft

When the OKC Thunder blew up the roster sending out virtually all their veterans and core contributors the writing seemed to be on the wall. The team was going to enter a rebuilding phase

Four-fifths of the clutch time lineup was gone adding beneficial assets along the way. Vice President, Sam Presti capitalized on the trades to bolster his draft closet either directly via the trades or by virtue of flipping those picks

While most of the deals won’t translate until the draft picks collected are conveyed there are early benefits being recognized. For example, the trade to send Dennis Schroder to the defending champions brought back Danny Green. The two-way sniper was packaged with Terrance Ferguson in a deal with the 76ers.

The big portion of that trade emphasized Al Horford coming to OKC and a 2025 top-six protected draft pick. Plus the 34th pick of this past draft which conveyed to be point guard Theo Maledon.

Maledon is primarily playing a reserve role in his rookie season but is eliciting debate he was one of the big steals in this draft class.

Case in point, Maledon started in place of George Hill the past three games and progressively improved in each match. His game versus the Nets highlighted the potential as he broke out for 24 points including a perfect 6 of 6 from deep plus three rebounds, three assists, and a steal.

Rockets first-round swap will play a critical role in OKC Thunder 2021 draft

If there is an issue it might be the fact the Thunder are over performing. The loss to the Nets knocked them down to 11th in the West or one spot out of the play-in tournament. That’s a position the Thunder have flirted with all season. While that might have a few in Thunder Nation a bit nervous it’s not necessarily a bad thing.

Sure, the ideal option would be for the squad to go on a big losing streak plummeting down the ladder finishing in one of those coveted bottom three slots. That would ensure the best chance for the Thunder to land the top selection in the 2021 draft this offseason.

There is also a good chance George Hill and Al Horford could be traded at the deadline since teams on the cusp of title contention could be looking for veterans with their specific skill sets. It’s not a guarantee Sam Presti will trade them, nor is it guaranteed the Thunder will lose if they do.

Especially since Maledon and the youthful core of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Darius Bazley, Hamidou Diallo, Isaiah Roby, etc sure seem to embody the “resilient” qualities coach Mark Daigneault spoke about after a recent win.

It’s also not a foregone conclusion the Thunder would continue their current 44.4 win percentage. However, if they did it’s important to remember the team will have options entering this draft.

First, OKC will have a minimum of two first-round draft picks from this class and could have as many as three selections in the first round.

The Golden State Warriors’ picks is protected 1-20 but if the Warriors finish in the top 10 then OKC will get the Timberwolves’ second-round pick. At the quarter mark, the Warriors rank 13th, and the Wolves rank 28th. Clearly, the best-case scenario in this situation would be for the Dubs to move into the top-10 (not unrealistic).

While it’s not guaranteed, the Wolves are likely to remain among the bottom teams given their current ranking in the three core areas of offense (30), defense (26), and net ranking (30). In a deep draft class, there will be quality picks well into the second round so that Wolves pick could end up being the first pick of the second round.

Where things get extremely interesting is the picks tied to tonight’s opponent, the Houston Rockets. As part of the Russell Westbrook trade, two first-round draft picks (2024, 2026) and two first-round draft swaps (2021, 2025) were included.

What this means is the Thunder receives the TWO most favorable picks among the Rockets, Heat, and their own. There is a top-four protection on the Rockets pick. What that means is if Houston were to finish in the 27th – 30th position they would get Miami’s pick. If the Rockets finish 26th or higher their pick is clearly in play.

Making this situation even more compelling is the rough start to Miami’s season who currently reside in 27th!  The Thunder are 19th and the Rockets are 16th. While logic would dictate the Heat will get back on track now that Jimmy Butler is back that also isn’t guaranteed.

More from Thunderous Intentions

• Stealing one player from every Southwest Division team for the OKC Thunder
• Should the OKC Thunder chase after a disgruntled hometown hero?
• 3 OKC Thunder players who can step up in Aleksej Pokusevski’s absence
• Aleksej Pokusevski sidelined approximately 6 weeks with ankle injury
• Damian Lillard does not fit with the OKC Thunder

Adding fuel to this fire is the net rating of the Heat (minus 5.3). Every year John Schuhmann reminds the teams in the top 16 seeds rarely change after the quarter season. Moreover, the teams who have been the exception also typically possess a positive net rating.

The pandemic may mess with the historical odds of the situation but the fact Miami is 27th and also has the 26th worst net rating is a lot to overcome.

I’m not saying the Heat are a lock to be a lottery team. Rather, this is a reminder that two first-round picks are headed to the Thunder no matter what.

In an ideal world (sorry Heat and Rockets fans) Miami isn’t able to turn things around, the Rockets finish 26th and the Warriors finish 10th.

I haven’t observed probability odds for that scenario but they are probably low. But even in the worst-case scenario, the Thunder are guaranteed two first-round picks and a likely early second-round pick.

Although the odds would theoretically be higher the Thunder will have the lowest pick their ‘resiliency’ does give credence to imagining them being in the play-in tournament and also nabbing a top-three pick courtesy of the pick and swap they hold.

I’ll own the OCD nature of my daily check of the standing and unnatural obsession with how the Warriors, Rockets, and Heat are performing. Then again, given the pandemic and the inordinate amount of time spent in lockdown it’s offered ample fodder for draft pick dreaming.