OKC Thunder: The first quarter dynamic

If there was one area the OKC Thunder consistently struggled with last season it was how they started games and came out of the locker after the half.

This season two-thirds of the roster turned over and yet the club has seemingly carried over some of their old bad habits.

Intentions noticed it early in the season pointing to it in our three takeaways or warning of it in previews. Even the stats master John Schuhmann of NBA.com cited it in his power rankings recently.

"Last season, the Heat outscored their opponents by 12.7 points per 100 possessions in the first quarter, the best mark for any team in any quarter. This season, only the Thunder (a remarkable -26.0 per 100) have been worse than the Heat (-18.3) in the opening 12 minutes. Miami has trailed at the end of the first quarter in six of its last seven games and by 11 or more points in three of its last four. The Heat came back from a 19-point deficit to beat the Pistons on Monday and erased almost all of a 18-point deficit in Brooklyn on Saturday, but Bam Adebayo’s career-high 41 points weren’t enough, because they couldn’t stop Kyrie Irving down the stretch."

Specifically, those troubling first quarters seem to be the bane of this season as poor starts have almost always resulted in losses.

Only six players returned and just two remain in the starting rotation — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luguentz Dort. However, it would be unfair to place the poor starts on this duo since the club has demonstrated the same dynamic even when neither is in the lineup.

Through eight weeks of play, the OKC Thunder has an 11-15 record. Diving into those games and looking at first quarter performances specifically offers further fodder for Mark Daigneault to impress upon his squad.

note: First Quarter are referred to as 1Q below

OKC Thunder first-quarter performance directly links to losses

In six games the Thunder were beaten by between nine and 24 points in the first frame and each one resulted in a loss. These are the most obvious losses with a logical link back to the first quarter since the Thunder had to fight so hard to get back in these matches.

• Jan. 4: Heat 118  – Thunder 90:
  • Heat 1Q won 1Q (37-26), 1Q Differential – 11
• Jan. 13: Lakers 128 – Thunder 99:
  •  Lakers won 1Q (30-21), 1Q differential – 9
• Jan. 22: Clippers 120 – Thunder 106:
  • Clippers won 1Q (36-18),  1Q Differential – 18
• Jan. 24: Clippers 108 – Thunder 100:
  • Clippers won 1Q (36-19), 1Q Differential – 17
• Jan. 29: Nets 146 – Thunder 125:
  • Nets won 1Q (36-27), 1Q Differential -9
• Feb 1: Rockets 136 – Thunder 106:
  • Rockets won 1Q (48-24), 1Q Differential – 24

In another three matches the Thunder lost the first quarter by a margin of two to seven points:

• Dec 29: Magic 118 – Thunder 107:
  • Magic won 1Q (34-27), 1Q Differential – 7
• Dec 31: Pelicans 113  – Thunder 80:
  • Pelicans won 1Q (32-28), 1Q Differential -4
• Feb 5: Wolves 106 – Thunder 103:
  • Wolves won 1Q (25-23), 1Q Differential – 2

In two games the Thunder were tied after the initial frame:

• Jan. 12: Spurs 112 – Thunder 102:
  • 1Q: teams tied with 26 points each 
• Jan. 19: Nuggets 119 – Thunder 101:
  • 1Q: teams tied with 31 points each

Four losses were the exception to the rule. In these instances, the OKC Thunder won the opening frame but lost the game. Among this group are the two overtime losses to the Lakers.

The other two are the opening game of the season and the loss in Denver which in fairness OKC was fatigued after the two overtime losses in LA and playing with a severely diminished roster due to injuries.  Yet, OKC was in each of these matches losing two in extra frames and the other two by a cumulative three points.

• Dec. 28:  Jazz 110 – Thunder 109:
  • Thunder won 1Q (24-22), 1Q Differential +2
• Feb 8: Lakers 119 – Thunder 112 OT:
  • Thunder won 1Q (33-26), 1Q Differential +7
• Feb 10: Lakers 114 – Thunder 113 OT:
  • Thunder won 1Q (37-23), 1Q Differential +14
• Feb 12th: Nuggets 97 – Thunder 95:
  • Thunder won 1Q (28-16), 1Q Differential +12

The takeaway here is when the Thunder wins the opening frame they give themselves a much better chance at also winning the match.

To that end, a look at the OKC Thunder wins provides compelling supporting evidence that either winning or staying close in the opening frame increases the team’s odds of victory.

Case in point, in their 11 wins the Thunder won the opening frame on five occasions and tied once:

• Dec. 26: Hornets 107 – Thunder 109:
  • OKC won 1Q (28-26), 1Q Differential +2

• Jan 10: Nets 116 – Thunder 129:
  • OKC won 1Q (28-26), 1Q Differential +2
• Jan 25: Blazers 125 – Thunder 122:
  • OKC won 1Q (34-24), 1Q Differential +10
• February 3: Rockets 86 – Thunder 104: 
  • OKC won 1Q (30-25) 1Q Differenctial +5
• February 6: Wolves 118 – Thunder 120:
  •  OKC  won 1Q (43-24) 1Q Differential +19
• February 15: Bucks 109 – Thunder 114:
  • Teams were tied after 1Q

In the other five instances, the Thunder either countered immediately in the second quarter or came out of the halftime break and pounced on their opponent. Additionally, these games occurred, for the most part, earlier in the season with four in the first half of January:

• Jan 2: Magic 99 – Thunder 108:
  • Magic won 1Q (33-28), 1Q Differential -5 *OKC responded with 24-18 second frame
• Jan 6: Pelicans 110 – Thunder 111:
  • Pelicans won 1Q (34-26), 1Q Differential -8, *OKC had a huge 3Q of 34-19 
• Jan 8: Knicks 89 – Thunder 101:
  • Knicks won 1Q (24 -15), 1Q Differential -9 – *OKC won every other quarter
• Jan 15: Bulls 125 – Thunder 127 (OT):
  • Bulls won 1Q (30-22), 1Q Differential -8, *lost 1H by 18 points but rallied to win 2H by 18 points, force overtime, and win the match.
• Jan 27: Suns 97 – Thunder 102:
  • Suns won 1Q (32-17), 1Q Differential -15, *OKC won second quarter 28-10

More from Thunderous Intentions

• Stealing one player from every Southwest Division team for the OKC Thunder
• Should the OKC Thunder chase after a disgruntled hometown hero?
• 3 OKC Thunder players who can step up in Aleksej Pokusevski’s absence
• Aleksej Pokusevski sidelined approximately 6 weeks with ankle injury
• Damian Lillard does not fit with the OKC Thunder

It’s interesting the first quarter dynamic has carried over into this season give the roster overhaul. Then again, this iteration of the Thunder is a young team who are expected to make mistakes and experience growing pains.

The difference between the Thunder and other lottery squads is Mark Daigneault has them competing nightly pushing the very best squads in the association. Moreover, while they are repeating some bad habits this squad displays an uncanny ability to process lessons quickly and adapt on the fly.

That bodes well for the team moving forward. As we’ve noted all season, losing games is essentially what the fanbase and franchise desire in order to land that top draft pick. However,  the fact OKC is right in games versus the Lakers, Clippers, Nets, Bucks, Suns, and Blazers.

is a testament to the moxy of this young team. They’ve made “tanking” enjoyable simply by their pure commitment to competing regardless of the opponent or score.