OKC Thunder: Gilgeous-Alexander’s strong All-Star case faces uphill battle

The NBA is forging ahead with the 2021 All-Star Game slated to occur on March 7th in Atlanta. In all but the inaugural season of the OKC Thunder franchise, the team has had at least one player participate in the main fan event of the season. That is likely to change this season although Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has delivered a solid case for his inclusion.

Clearly, this year is extremely different given the coronavirus pandemic and more importantly the league’s superstars who were vocal in their proclamations against holding the annual event.

This week, the starters who fans, players, and media voted for were announced. LeBron James and former OKC Thunder superstar Kevin Durant received the most votes and subsequently will be the team captains. Stephen Curry, Luka Doncic, Kawhi Leonard, and Nikola Jokic were the other Western vote-getters while the East adds Bradley Beal, Kyrie Irving, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid.

Coaches will now complete the 12-man rosters by selecting another seven players from each conference. While there are a few players who might breakthrough for their inaugural appearance there are also a number of perennial participants likely already cemented.

Case in point, Damian Lillard is a lock while Donovan Mitchell and/or Rudy Gobert is another lock based on the Jazz holding the best record in the NBA.  Unlike fans, coaching staffs historically reward ‘team’ performance as a prime consideration. That means players from lottery teams don’t typically get rewarded (see Bradley Beal and late additions of last year).

Nor do coaches tend to reward teams who aren’t seeded in the top four spots with more than one player. It will be interesting to see if that changes this season with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo of the Heat who are still outside the top eight teams (10th).

Regardless, it is a safe assumption the players on playoff seeded clubs will receive stronger consideration.

OKC Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander battle to become an All-Star reserve:

Entering action the weekend those eight current playoff seeds are noted below. In addition, the players either already starting (in bold) or who’ll receive consideration to be added as reserves are listed:

1. Utah Jazz – Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert
2. Los Angeles Lakers LeBron James and Anthony Davis
3. LA Clippers – Kawhi Leonard and Paul George
4. Portland Trail Blazers – Damian Lillard
5. Phoenix Suns – Chris Paul and Devin Booker
6. San Antonio Spurs – DeMar DeRozan
7. Denver Nuggets – Nikola Jokic 
8. Golden State Warriors – Stephen Curry 

With the announcement James, Leonard, Jokic, and Curry are starters that means four top eight seeds from the West are represented. As noted Lillard is a lock and there will definitely be one or possibly two players added from the Jazz. While Anthony Davis would be an automatic addition his injury will keep him from participating.

The question is whether coaches will leave him off their list knowing he can’t play or reward him anyway and let Adam Silver decide who replaces him. Last season Devin Booker was the injury replacement for Damian Lillard.

Although Booker could be selected again it’s equally likely Chris Paul gets rewarded for the job he’s done captaining the Suns to fifth. Moreover, as the NBPA president, he championed the All-Star game moving forward and for HBCUs to be a focus of the event.

DeMar DeRozan may also be a player coaches consider with the Spurs sitting in sixth. Another possibility is Paul George but given he just returned from missing seven consecutive games and 10 in total it offers an excuse to leave him off the team.

Let’s assume the locks are Lillard, and Mitchell with the high potential for CP3 Gobert and Davis being in the mix. That would take five of the seven spots (and again, Silver would then make the decision on Davis’ replacement).

The other part of this equation is the politics and popularity of players. For example, Zion Williamson is a player the league is eager to promote and a fan favorite. But the Pelicans rank 12th and arguably Brandon Ingram is the better overall player.

Looking at the teams ranked ninth through 15th each has a star with an argument to be selected:

• Ja Morant – Memphis Grizzlies (9th)
• De’Aaron Fox – Sacramento Kings (11th)
• Williamson/Ingram – Pelicans (12th)
• Christian Wood – Rockets (13th)
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – OKC Thunder (14th)
• Karl-Anthony Towns – Wolves (15th)

Wood like PG13 is dealing with an extended absence due to injury which could provide the necessary excuse.

While Towns team is dead last will his circumstance garner votes after he’s been through such a difficult year losing his mother and six family members and also contracting the virus himself.

Morant and SGA have similar cases in that they are the face of their organizations and young leaders of teams many cite as overachieving. Albeit, the recent accumulation of losses by the OKC Thunder may also work against Shai.

Another consideration is the seven reserves are broken down by position with three from the frontcourt, two backcourt, and two wild cards. That means at most four guards could be selected.

Assuming Lillard and Mitchell are locked it lessens the odds for Gilgeous-Alexander. Especially considering he’ll be in the mix facing Chris Paul, Booker, DeRozan, Morant, and Fox under consideration for a wild card slot.

So let’s dive into the stats of the backcourt players most likely to be in the mix to land the two reserve spots or wild card slots. In each case, except Ja Morant, I pulled the last three seasons to highlight their comparative performance this season.