Are OKC Thunder youthful starting unit ahead of schedule?
The first half of the 2020-21 season is complete and the OKC Thunder enters the All-Star break riding the wave of victory. A result of their efforts versus the Spurs on Thursday, and their second such win versus San Antonio in eight days.
As Intentions noted in the preview, the last match played prior to the break is considered one of the four most difficult each season.
To wit, many young squads were on the losing side such as the Pistons, Grizzlies, Pelicans, and Kings. And while the Clippers, Warriors, and Pacers also lost it was to the teams who had longer-term roster constancy (Wizards, Suns, and Nuggets) who bested them.
OKC completed the first half boasting a 15-21 record which finds them in a virtual 12th place tie in the West with New Orleans although the Pelicans rank higher based on tie-breaking caveats. That puts the Thunder outside the play-in tournament seeding, albeit within striking distance and higher on the ladder than they’d ideally like to be at season end.
OKC’s league position is 23rd, again higher than the club would prefer given the goal of nabbing one of the coveted top three lottery picks. With the March 25th trade deadline looming the belief is more moves will be made. In particular, the veteran trio of George Hill, Al Horford, and Trevor Ariza will be shopped by Sam Presti with the view of bolstering the draft cupboard and/or adding youthful talents.
The popular belief was trading that trio would result in the Thunder sliding down the ladder into a more enviable draft lottery position. Yet is that a solid assumption?
OKC Thunder youthful starting unit may be ahead of schedule
The typical starting lineup features the young trio of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, and Darius Bazley plus vets Al Horford and George Hill. To keep Horford fresh (read: healthy and tradeable) he is rested in the second games of back-to-back (B2B) sets plus he missed another five dealing with an injury. George Hill has missed 22 games (21 consecutive) primarily due to a thumb injury. OKC is 5-7 in the games without Horford and 9-13 without Hill.
Certainly, Hill and Horford are quality NBA players and their presence adds value to the roster. That said, it isn’t a given if they are traded the Thunder would definitely tank or regress.
Case in point, both Hill and Horford were out of the lineup on seven occasions. The young starting trio was joined by Isaiah Roby and Justin Jackson on Dec. 29th (Magic). then Kenrich Williams and Theo Maledon on Feb. 6th (Timberwolves) losing the former and winning the latter. In the five other games, the starting rotation featured the core trio plus Maledon and Isaiah Roby.
That quintet (SGA, Dort, Bazley, Maledon, and Roby) has an average age of 20.8 years. In comparison to their opponents, this starting unit is by far the youngest in the association.
The following highlights the average age of starting lineups (typical starting five or most frequently used).
- Hawks: 23.2
- Celtics: 26.2
- Nets: 30.4
- Bulls: 23.8
- Hornets: 24.4
- Cavaliers: 21.8
- Mavericks: 25.8
- Nuggets: 25.2
- Pistons: 27.6
- Warriors: 26.2
- Rockets: 30
- Pacers: 26.8 (note: when healthy TJ Warren and Caris LeVert will start making new S5: 25.8)
- Clippers: 30.8
- Lakers: 30.6
- Grizzlies: 25.2 (when Jaren Jackson returns changes to 23.8)
- Heat: 26.8
- Bucks: 28.2
- Timberwolves: 23.8
- Knicks: 25.6
- Pelicans: 24.8
- Magic: 26.6
- 76ers: 28.2
- Suns: 27
- Blazers: 27.6 (this is with Nurkic with Kanter: 28)
- Kings: 25.4
- Spurs: 26.6 (with Poeltl instead of Aldridge: 24.6)
- Raptors: 27.2
- Jazz: 28.6
- Wizards: 25
The closest in age to this starting lineup is the Cavaliers and even then are a full year older. Next in line are the Hawks and Bulls and again it’s an average of more than two and three years older than this Thunder quintet.
With the clear goal of moving Horford and Hill at the deadline, presumably, this quintet would be cemented as the starting unit. In that scenario, the Thunder can’t rely on the team tanking. While a very small sample size this group is part of the reason the Thunder are overachieving and doing it in adverse conditions.