OKC Thunder: Pros and Cons of trading for John Collins
Pros of the OKC Thunder trading for John Collins
The first pro is pretty obvious as the OKC Thunder immediately gets a secondary reliable scoring option who fits their timeline. As Bill Simmons and Ryen Russillo note JC hasn’t played with a ‘traditional point guard’ invested in making sure he is consistently included in the offense.
Timing is everything and in Collins’ case, the way he was viewed initially has shifted. He went from being ‘the guy’ to the ‘the duo with Trae’ to ‘this is Trae Young’s team’. That’s not his fault it’s simple facts. He was drafted first, and while Collins is immensely talented Young was the type of generational talent the Hawks believe they can build around to win a title.
Collins and Young displayed great chemistry in their initial seasons together. However, the addition of paint dominant Clint Capela means Collins has to be used as a floor spacer and that limits the pick and roll options he and Young used to feast on (with Capela now the main recipient).
Moreover, trading Collins would open up the starting rotation to insert Danilo Gallinari. The narrator has always maintained Gallo starting was the plan when Atlanta inked him to a three-year $61.5 million deal.
| Season | G | MP | FGA | FG% | 3PA | 3P% | 2PA | 2P% | eFG% | FTA | FT% | ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-18 | 74 | 24.1 | 7.4 | .576 | 0.6 | .340 | 6.7 | .598 | .591 | 2.5 | .715 | 2.4 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 10.5 |
| 2018-19 | 61 | 30.0 | 13.6 | .560 | 2.6 | .348 | 11.0 | .609 | .593 | 4.4 | .763 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 9.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 19.5 |
| 2019-20 | 41 | 33.2 | 14.8 | .583 | 3.6 | .401 | 11.2 | .642 | .632 | 3.7 | .800 | 2.8 | 7.3 | 10.1 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 21.6 |
| 2020-21 | 39 | 30.5 | 13.1 | .528 | 3.6 | .374 | 9.5 | .586 | .580 | 3.3 | .844 | 2.1 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 17.9 |
| Career | 215 | 28.7 | 11.6 | .563 | 2.3 | .371 | 9.3 | .610 | .599 | 3.4 | .773 | 2.8 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 16.5 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/15/2021.
The stats show the palpable effect of Capela on Collins. His points, rebounds, and blocks have all suffered because he’s playing outside the paint more. Similarly, his shooting efficiency has dropped because he’s getting fewer in-close scoring opportunities, and when he does get them has to navigate the paint around the big frame of Capela.
Last season Collins was one of only four players who averaged 20 or more points and 10 or more rebounds (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, Karl-Anthony Towns). JC is the youngest of the quartet and hasn’t reached his prime yet.
So, imagine the Thunder having Collins as part of the equation in OKC He’d be a very big part of the offense with Theo Maledon and SGA looking for him. And with Collins’ ability, there is reason to believe in this culture of team-first his playmaking would take another leap.
A big plus would be the rebounding impact Collins offers. Other than Moses Brown who is playing off the bench there isn’t a Capella-type presence in OKC so Collins should thrive in the paint. OKC ranks 11th for total rebounds per game but 29th on the offensive glass with Isaiah Roby (1.5) leading the team. Even with Capella, JC is still pulling down 2.1 offensive boards (the lowest of his career). In his two prior seasons, JC grabbed 2.8 and 3.6 offensive boards respectively.
In terms of the package that could be offered for Collins, Sam Presti has an ace up his sleeve with a player who hasn’t played in a single game this year — Trevor Ariza. He could be part of the package offered to provide the Hawks with a defensive-minded vet with playoff and championship experience.
Sure, picks will need to be part of the equation but again, the Thunder should offer picks from years where they have multiples. Moreover, just like teams put lottery protections on picks Presti can stipulate the Hawks get the worst of their three picks from 2024 for example.