OKC Thunder odds to win NBA Draft Lottery, and a lucky charm to consider

The 2020-21 season was a new experience for the OKC Thunder and their fans. Despite being a young franchise, participation in the postseason was more the norm than not. Over the course of 13 seasons, OKC had only missed earning a playoff berth twice prior to this year.

Specifically, the inaugural season and 2014-15 when OKC narrowly missed grabbing the eighth seed. This season became the year of ‘the tank’ even if no one in the front office wanted to utter that ugly “T” word.

The problem was the Thunder were playing too well given the target. Injuries impacted the rotation but also adjustments like resting healthy vets were made. Rookies and role players were afforded experience and an opportunity to grow. That equated to OKC finishing with a 22-50 record, 14th in the West.

A subsequent tiebreaker coin flip placed the Thunder ahead of the Cavaliers so the franchise has the fourth-best odds to win the top draft pick.

Tonight Thunder Nation will finally discover precisely what picks the team will have in the 2021 draft.  The NBA Draft Lottery airs live on ESPN at 8:30 p.m. EST (7:30 p.m. CT).

OKC Thunder NBA Draft Lottery odds and lucky charm consideration

Statistically, the odds of winning have been defined. Three teams (Rockets, Pistons, and Magic) have the best shot of winning the top pick with 14 percent.  The OKC Thunder have an 11.5 percent chance. From there the odds fall off fairly dramatically with the next five teams having a 9.0 to 4.5 percent.

As for specifics, the Thunder can do no worse than eighth, but here are the specific odds:

• First -11.5%
• Second – 11.4%
• Third – 11.2%
• Fourth – 11.0%
• Fifth – 7.4%
• Sixth – 27.1%
• Seventh – 18.0%
• Eighth – 2.4

As per above the odds favor OKC getting the sixth pick followed by the seventh pick. But, before fans get nervous there are important nuances to this.

In 2019 the NBA modified the draft process and that resulted in some leaps up the board. The Pelicans and Grizzlies jumped to the top of the board but entered the night projected to get the seventh and eighth picks. Last season, the Hornets leaped from eighth to third.

Like all lotteries, this is a game of chance, and Thunder Nation is hopeful their bingo balls will end up with the coveted top spot. To that end, over the years many franchises have thrown caution to the wind relying on superstition and lucky charms.

In 2019, for example, David Griffin had then head coach Alvin Gentry wear the ‘lucky tie”.  It was the same tie worn in previous lotteries by Cavaliers executive Jeff Cohen.  Cleveland won all three of those lotteries (2011, 2013, and 2014).

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Clothing is a common good luck charm with ties, socks, and even sports coats being worn.  Other items such as pins and special jewelry have been donned. Some teams rely on individuals as special representatives.  The Pacers even consulted psychics one season.

Special fan-based events have also been used to come up with a lucky charm resulting in items like a lucky fishing lure.

This year teams are investing in lucky charms of all varieties. Warriors executive Rick Welts is bringing their three championship rings and calling upon Klay Thompson’s bulldog Rocco to help out. Toronto is sending Fred VanVleet who was undrafted but bet on himself and became a champion.  Similarly, the Rockets are sending Hakeem Olajuwon hoping he’ll bring them luck.

Given Intentions often refers to Sam Presti as ‘the magician” perhaps we could suggest the Thunder representative carry a rabbit’s foot key chain.

We’re calling upon the fan base to utilize their lucky charms tonight to send our cumulative energy toward those ping pong balls.

The primary goal is to nab the top pick (Cade Cunningham). The secondary wish is for the Rockets pick to fall to fifth, which means it would convey to OKC.  If that doesn’t happen then the Thunder would get the Heat pick at 18th.

While you await the live event tonight the following link to Tankathon will let you simulate the lottery as you conduct your own draw.

Let’s get that top draft pick Thunder Nation!