3 emerging trends OKC Thunder must heed when selecting NBA Draft picks

With the lottery complete the OKC Thunder are now in full preparation mode for the 2021 NBA Draft on July 29th. Sam Presti has six players to select with picks occurring 6th, 16th, 18th, 34th, 36th, and 55th.

Although nothing is set in stone, six players represent more than a third of an NBA 15 man roster (17 if you count the two 2-way contracts). Because OKC’s ping pong balls netted the sixth pick there is a strong belief Sam Presti will attempt to move up, packaging picks toward that effort.

Regardless of what that final number of picks the VP ends up making, there are common traits and qualities OKC will be seeking in the interview and workout process. Yet, defining the ‘best talent available’ becomes murkier after the top four (some believe five) players on the board. Moreover, the selection criteria for teams are far more diverse in the current era of basketball.

To wit, of all the major sports leagues the NBA is the most influenced by trends. If one team experiences success via a system change it’s a virtual guarantee the following season other teams will attempt to emulate them.

OKC Thunder must focus on emerging trends when selecting NBA Draft picks

A system change example was the increased ball and player movement the Spurs popularized in their 2013-14 title run. That season San Antonio topped the league with 330.7 passes while the Warriors made the fewest (243.8) passes per game. The next season the big shift of ball movement witnessed league-wide increases. Both ends of the ladder showcased double-digit passing per game increases with the Jazz (364.1) on the top rung and Nuggets (264.1) at the bottom.

Similarly, 76ers executive Daryl Morey (then with the Rockets) popularized ‘analytics” and the acceleration of perimeter shooting opting for 3-point or lay-up offense. Teams adopted the perimeter shooting advancement and simultaneously put less emphasis on mid-range shooting. In 2011-12 teams averaged 18.4 perimeter attempts per game. Flash forward a decade and the attempts have almost doubled with an average of 34.6 perimeter attempts per game. 

Positional changes are another trend team’s copy. The traditional big man that historically played with his back to the basket became almost obsolete. Duo point guard lineups were another favorable lineup choice. This past offseason, 3 and D wings held the greatest value but the playoffs have arguably provided yet another shift in trends.

The Thunder is intent on moving toward a system featuring positionless players. In turn, that means finding players with well-developed fundamental skillsets who are versatile. Yet, as the lottery just demonstrated luck will play a role in how long the Thunder rebuild timeline takes. Subsequently, OKC will undoubtedly make some high-risk, high-reward selections over the next several seasons akin to players such as Aleksej Pokusevski.

So while the Thunder seek positionless players more than ever before Presti needs to be cognizant of the changing dynamics of the league.

And with that reality, this postseason is serving up trends likely to gain traction this offseason as teams upgrade their rosters.