Small market teams like the OKC Thunder face an uphill battle comparative to their large market counterparts. Although that dynamic has always existed the Thunder avoided many of the typical pitfalls through the initial dozen years of the franchise. Yet, this past season drove home precisely how much harder it is for teams like the Thunder to sustain competitive success.
Credit Sam Presti and his front office who drafted three generational talents from the onset with each eventually becoming a regular-season MVP. In six of the eight seasons Kevin Durant was in OKC the club reached the postseason. Russell Westbrook was part of nine playoffs in his 11 years with OKC while James Harden never missed the postseason in his short three-year tenure.
Suffice to say, superstar talent has the biggest impact on sustained success. That point was driven home last night as Giannis Antetokounmpo led the Milwaukee Bucks to their first NBA title in fifty years.
It was great for the league that two small-market clubs reached the NBA Finals. And, while viewership surpassed the Lakers – Heat finals in the Orlando bubble it’s a veritable certainty free agents won’t be flocking to join the Bucks or Suns.
Small market OKC Thunder faces uphill battle versus big market advantages
Rather, free-agents preference will lean to big markets as evidenced by the events of last year. KD and Kyrie Irving opted for the Brooklyn Nets in free agency while Harden forced his way out of Houston to form the Big 3. Blake Griffin ($1,229,676) and LaMarcus Aldridge ($878,340) each accepted far less money to be part of a superteam.
In fact, Griffin who was slated to earn $32,670,565 in Detroit accepted a buyout leaving $13.3 million on the table. While injuries and a sneaker toe ended the Nets season prematurely the situation in Brooklyn drove home how teams like the Thunder will never be on an even playing field.
Throughout history, star players have primarily gravitated to the two coasts (LA and New York). Franchises steeped in NBA history like the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics also garner interest. The Miami Heat and Golden State Warriors are in the mix with checkmarks for recent titles, superstar rosters, and warm weather.
Having a superstar talent isn’t a guarantee to pull the top talents. Revisiting the two teams who reached this year’s finals punctuates that fact. Giannis Antetokounmpo won back-to-back MVP’s but Milwaukee wasn’t inundated with free agents clamoring to join the Bucks. Chris Paul approved the trade to Phoenix but he’s 36 and despite leading the OKC Thunder to a wonderful campaign in 2019-20 wasn’t considered a top 10 talent.
The recent whispers surrounding Damian Lillard and the national media seemingly pushing for his exit from Portland are yet another example of how much harder it is for small markets to contend.
The league does little to help the imbalance of power more often compounding the issue. A glance at the national TV schedule highlights how the league caters to sponsors whose preference is clearly to feature large market teams.
There are the occasional exceptions and even then the league goes overboard. A perfect example is Zion Williamson who the league potentially envisioned as a player who would have a similar draw to a young LeBron James.
From his inception, the league jumped on promoting Zion’s Pelicans aligning them in the opening night ring ceremony with the Raptors and handing them a Christmas game. Despite that injury-plagued rookie season, the league doubled down this year featuring the Pelicans on 25 national TV matches.
- ABC – 1
- ESPN 9 (including their second consecutive Christmas Day game)
- NBA TV – 6
- TNT – 9
Here's how many games each NBA team has on ABC, ESPN and TNT. (via @DanFeldmanNBA) pic.twitter.com/JtyHx0OtFC
— J.E. Skeets (@jeskeets) December 5, 2020
The NBA waited to schedule second-half matches and although the OKC Thunder and Pelicans each held an identical 15-21`records it was Zion’s Pels who were rewarded with 11 nationally televised matches compared to the one NBA TV match the Thunder were awarded (their lone national game of the season).
Even the Utah Jazz who topped the association all season got fewer (21) national games than the Pelcians.
The league and analysts projected the Pelicans to be a playoff squad with Stan Van Gundy coaching, rising star Williamson, MIP player Brandon Ingram, a bunch of young talents like Lonzo Ball and Jaxson Hayes plus the addition of vets Eric Bledsoe, Steven Adams, and sniper J.J. Redick. But, like the Thunder are lottery-bound.
Consider the OKC Thunder roster and what Shai Gigeous-Alexander did in leading them in the first half. They weren’t feasting, but they were overachieving and much of their success was due to the Canadian. But, the league elected to promote Williamson and likely will again next season.
Superstars are the biggest draw in the league but success also drives things like merchandise sales. There is a natural link to exposure and While superstars are the biggest draw when it comes to merchandise
For years the OKC Thunder defied the odds because of the superstars on the team but there is a direct correlation to national exposure and merchandise sales. The top 10 most popular teams reflected in merchandise sales feature those big markets including the Lakers, Nets, Knicks, Bulls, 76ers, and Celtics. Recent champions make the cut (Warriors, Raptors) and the two lone small market teams in the mix are this year’s NBA finalists – Bucks and Suns.
In terms of jersey sales, the superstars lead the way but again markets size, TV exposure and success play a role. As an example, an injury-plagued season coupled with losing in the first round witnessed Anthony Davis drop from third to 13th in jersey sales.
LeBron James continued to top jersey sales while the Nets Big 3 made the cut, as did NBA Finals stars Antetokounmpo and Devin Booker. The only player in the top 15 who didn’t appear in the playoffs is Stephen Curry but given his status in the league and recent title success that’s not surprising.
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Playoff appearances bolstered popularity as the other seven in the top 15 jersey sales were Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum, Damian Lillard, Trae Young, Joel Embiid, Ja Morant, and Kawhi Leonard.
Although Westbrook and Durant both were in this group while with the Thunder neither the team nor stars are likely to join this top group until they are competitive again.
Of course that puts added pressure on Sam Presti to use those draft picks wisely and continue to make smart trades in a timely fashion.
Ultimately, the NBA is a business and as such, there is a direct correlation between sponsors, TV exposure, and popularity. Unfortunately, that means nothing will change in terms of big markets always having a decided advantage when it comes to drawing superstar talent or adding players willing to take less money to join those big market teams.
That puts even more emphasis on the NBA draft for the OKC Thunder as the fan base waits to see if Presti the magician can get struck by lightning twice!