OKC Thunder: SGA vaults up B/R 2018 redraft

The 2021 draft class was stock full of talent — or so we think. The OKC Thunder selected four rookies and made deals with two of their other picks.

Immediately after the draft there everyone was assessing grades, debating winners versus losers, and diving into the fits of every prospect selected. It was rumored as one of the deepest draft classes in years. Yet, hindsight is 20-20.

For example,  the 2018 draft class (and lottery in particular) sure didn’t align with how the majority of teams expected. In reflection, several lottery picks (and top ones at that) would plummet down the list. Oh and that guy Luka, well every team in the lottery would be selling every current and future pick they owned to get him.

OKC Thunder cornerstone Gilgeous-Alexander rockets up B/R redraft

Bleacher Report writer, Andy Bailey dove back into the 2018 Draft with a view to where players would be selected now. Using the players’ production of the past three seasons Bailey focused on 12 specific statistical areas including the core categories, shooting percentages, as well as player projections.

Of note, 2018 was a year where the OKC Thunder were not players on lottery night. Positioned at 20th – that first-round pick was conveyed to the Timberwolves (Josh Okogie). Two late second-round picks were on OKC’s menu (53rd – Devon Hall, 57th – Kevin Hervey) but this Bailey redraft focused only on the first round.

Despite not having a first-round pick in 2018, B/R’s redraft touches on a former OKC Thunder player as well as the cornerstone.

First up, Hamidou Diallo moves from 45th up to 28th in Bailey’s order with the Warriors selecting him. Hami was a draft-night deal Presti pulled off with the Nets. Diallo spent two full seasons and 32 games of 2020-21 prior to his trade to the Pistons.

"Hamidou Diallo had a mini-breakout in 2020-21, when he averaged 11.6 points in 23.6 minutes and shot a career-high 34.1 percent from three. For the first time in his career, he looked like more than a dunk contest champion.Work still needs to be done, though. The three-point percentage could be an aberration (he shot 24.7 percent prior to 2020-21), so continued progress there would be encouraging. A bit more volume as a playmaker and more defensive consistency wouldn’t hurt either."

The main news from Bailey’s re-draft that affects the OKC Thunder was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leaping from the 11th (Clippers’ selection) to the 5th spot (Mavericks). As much as we love SGA in OKC I doubt Mavs fans would be quite as happy with this redraft (losing Luka Doncic).

"All the caveats regarding the 2020-21 season apply. The pace of the game has risen over the last few years, and three-point attempt rates are through the roof. Individual numbers looked supercharged.But Shai Gilgeous-Alexander still deserves credit for the development he’s shown in his short NBA career.His scoring average, true shooting percentage and BPM have gone up in each season, topping out at 23.7 points with a 62.3 true shooting percentage and a 3.8 BPM.Transitioning from an off-ball player with Chris Paul to the lead playmaker went well too. He averaged a career-high 5.9 assists in 2020-21, using the same smooth, change-of-pace game that made him a dynamic scorer in Year 2.On the other end of the floor, SGA hasn’t shown himself to be a lockdown defender, but he has the length (at 6’6″) and athleticism to guard multiple positions. And there’s plenty of time for the 23-year old to develop the habits necessary to make more of an impact there."

The players who Bailey positions in the four spots ahead of SGA are:

1. Luka Doncic (Suns)
2. Trae Young (Kings)
3. Michael Porter Jr. (Hawks)
4. Deandre Ayton (Grizzlies)

There is room to quibble with Bailey’s placement but not much.  Doncic will be an MVP and possibly the face of the league soon.  MPJ and Ayton both have progressed well with their clubs and were critical contributors in the postseason.

Young is undoubtedly the star of his team and demonstrated a true tenacity in the 2021 playoffs. I’d be hesitant to put him ahead of Ayton especially as I’m anxious to see how the revised offensive fouls roll out this season. Nor are we sure how MPJ or Young’s health will hold up long term.  But overall this top five makes complete sense.

The bigger takeaway perhaps is how dramatic the movement on the redraft ladder was.  For one undrafted player to make the cut would be unusual in a typical redraft but B/R has four who do:  Drew Eubanks (29th, | Kendrick Nunn (21st) | Jae’Sean Tate (19th) | Duncan Robinson (12th).

A further nine second-round picks get the bump upward:

• Hamidou Diallo (45th to  28th)
• Gary Trent Jr. (37th up to 27th)
• Bruce Brown (42nd to 24th)
• Jarred Vanderbilt (41st to 23rd)
• Jevon Carter (32nd to 20th)
• Jalen Brunson (33rd to 17th)
• De’Anthony Melton (46th to 16th)
• Devonte’ Graham (34th to 15th)
• Mitchell Robinson (36th to 9th).

Cumulative that’s 13 first-round picks being replaced. Adding the fire to this being a very odd draft class at least from B/R’s perspective is how far the top picks fell.  Although no draft is ever set in stone generally the lottery picks tend to be more reliable.

In this redraft, however, two big men Marvin Bagley III (2nd to 22nd) and Mo Bamba (6th to 26th) fall out of the lottery and two others (Kevin Knox, Jerome Robinson) don’t even make the first-round cut.

Sure, this is just one person’s opinion but given the matrix, he used to compare the prospects I’m hard-pressed to disagree with much here. Bagley and Bamba have not performed up to expectations. Knox to this point has been a bust.

Still, it does give pause over how many organizations have a good grasp of scouting and then a solid development team in place. Two undrafted Heat players deservedly make the cut on this redraft that speaks volumes to their program.

As for OKC, Presti’s prowess shines clearly here as Hami jumps onto the ladder & SGA climbs into the top five. It serves to remind of Presti’s ability to gauge talent and the team internally to develop them.

What did you think of this redraft? Anybody, you would move into the top 30 or lottery range or drop off the list? Let us know in the comments section.