OKC Thunder: Win projections, over-under – top picks

Elite Tier: Title contenders

Of the three tiers, the elite group is most likely to hit the mark. Barring a series of injuries to key players these ten clubs should comprise the top finishers in each conference.  The trickier part of the equation is how closely they’ll come to equalling or exceeding the projected win totals.

Continuity will definitely help clubs like the Bucks and Jazz as well as the Suns who proved last season their win streak in the bubble wasn’t an aberration.

Injuries, roster turnover, and player contract uncertainty could impact several clubs in this tier. For example, the 76ers are embroiled in the standoff with Ben Simmons, While their defense and Joel Embiid will keep them in the upper echelon surpassing last season’s tally will be tough.

Simmons is arguably the 76ers best defender and playmaker. Until the impasse is dealt with, Philly will need to specifically replace 14.3 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 6.9 assists per game on top of his defense.

Doc Rivers could up Matisse Thybulle’s playing time which will help defensively but barring a major offensive improvement won’t affect that side of the court. Last season Thybulle averaged 3.9 points, 1.9 rebounds, and 1.0 assists in 20 minutes per game.  While the 76ers should remain at or near the top of the conference, a lot of Eastern clubs shored up their talent so I’d recommend betting the under.

The Lakers made copious changes but they’re built for the postseason and have copious veterans who’ll need to be load managed. I could be on an island but something about these moves remind me of the Lakers of the 2003-04 season – the version with the aging Gary Payton and Karl Malone who got blown out 1-4 by the Pistons in the Finals.

The difference is the game is faster, more athletic, and overall more competitive than it was in 2003. It’s the Lakers, so LeBron and a team of vets will get copious benefit calls but I still think they’ll struggle to initially find their rhythm so again, bet the under.

Brooklyn Nets – 56.5    | ESPN Projection: 58-24 |    2020-21 record: 48-24

Milwaukee Bucks – 54.5    | ESPN Projection: 57-25 |     2020-21 record: 46-26

Los Angeles Lakers – 52.5   | ESPN Projection: 53-29 |   2020-21 record: 42-30

Utah Jazz – 52.5   | ESPN Projection: 55-27 |   2020-21 record: 52-20

Phoenix Suns  – 51.5   | ESPN Projection: 51-31 |   2020-21 record: 51-21

Philadelphia 76ers – 50.5  | ESPN Projection: 50-32 |   2020-21 record: 49-23

Golden State Warriors – 48.5   | ESPN Projection: 48-34 |   2020-21 record: 39-33

Miami Heat – 48.5   | ESPN Projection: 49-33 |   2020-21 record: 40-32

Dallas Mavericks – 48.5   | ESPN Projection: 48-34 |   2020-21 record: 42-30

Denver Nuggets – 47.5   | ESPN Projection: 50-32 |   2020-21 record: 47-25