OKC Thunder: Statistical anomaly raising red flags in preseason play

Three additional nights of games remain of preseason play with the OKC Thunder active on two of those evenings. OKC will face the Denver Nuggets in a back-to-back set featuring the club playing three games in five nights.

After the Thunder had five days off between their first and second preseason game. That means the Thunder rookies will get a real-time experience of what the season has in store for them. OKC will play 14 back-to-back sets this season.

While the goal is to obtain the best possible draft pick that doesn’t preclude the OKC Thunder from performing well in specific areas and using their youth and athleticism as an advantage. Moreover, head coach Mark Daigneault and the players have all spoken about the goal to improve daily.

To that end, although two games of preseason is an extremely small sample size there are already a few areas that stand out as needing tweaks.

Statistical areas OKC Thunder is underperforming in preseason play

At the top of Daigneault’s list of concerns should be rebounding. Despite being a bottom-tier club the Thunder were one of the best on the glass In 2020-21. OKC tied the Hawks in fifth with 45.6 rebounds per game. They tied for third (Pelicans) for defensive boards and were middle of the pack at 14th with 9.9 rebounds on the offensive glass.

Again, the preseason is an extremely small sample so it’s not indicative of something that can’t be tweaked, especially when rebounding has a lot to do with effort and being sound fundamentally by boxing out your opponent. Still, through the two preseason games, the Thunder has struggled on the glass tied for last with the Pistons for total rebounds (39), 29th on the defensive glass (31.5), and 27th on the offensive glass (7.5).

Offense was a sore spot for Daigneault’s charges last season finishing dead last in the association. In fairness, the lineups changed so frequently there was never time to build any sort of true chemistry. Factor in the decision to sit Al Horford, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander being out injured and other producers like Luguentz Dort and Mike Muscala being used sparingly.

Through two games this season the OKC Thunder rank 22nd offensively. Granted, the team improved dramatically between the first and second preseason game, however much of the damage occurred against the Bucks reserve unit.

The onus is on ball movement and the team which was reflected in the club’s 21 and 25 assists signifying the emphasis. Now the goal will be to deliver this type of effort consistently.

One positive takeaway was in the turnover category as the Thunder coughed up the ball 21 times against the Hornets but only nine times versus the Bucks. Considering how well Milwaukee plays defense and the pressure they put on the ball that’s a win for the Thunder.

Following up on that positive here’s a concern — the intangibles. We’re talking effort-based stats here such as points scored off turnovers, fast-break scoring, second-chance points, etc. This is the part of the game where young teams should excel especially if they’re invested defensively. After two games note the OKC Thunder scoring and rank in the four key intangible categories:

Points off turnovers:

16.0 (20th) | opponents – 17.0 (12th)

Second chance points:

7.0 (30th) | opponents – 18.0 (tied 29th)

Fast break points:

5.5 (30th) | opponents – 13.0 (tied 18th)

Points in the paint:

37.0  (26th) | opponents – 57.0  (29th)

One thing that will help the Thunder will be the return of Derrick Favors which should affect the opponent’s PIP and second-chance scoring.

I might be crying too early over spilled milk but for a franchise that values defense, these early signs should be heeded as warnings. We’re talking about a young squad who should be getting after the ball. If there are two key areas where youth, athleticism, and effort should translate into production it’s points scored off turnovers and fast-break scoring. OKC is faring okay off the turnover production but 5.5 points per game in the fast break isn’t acceptable.

Proving my point, the top five teams in these key hustle categories are:

Points off turnovers:

1. Wolves (31.0)
2. Raptors (27.8)
3. 76ers (26.7)
4. Bulls(25.7)
5. Suns (25.3)

Fast break scoring:

1. Grizzlies (23.5)
2. Kings (23.0)
3. Nuggets (21.3)
4. Wolves (21.3)
5. Raptors (19.0)

Second chance scoring:

1: Grizzlies (18.0)
2: Bulls (17.7)
3: Rockets (17.3)
Tied 4th: Mavericks/Raptors (17.0)

Notice the teams above who make the top five – the Grizzlies, Bulls, and Wolves make two of the three categories while the Raptors rank on all three lists.  The common denominator here is youth.  The OKC Thunder have the youngest roster by average age (23) while Memphis is 2nd (23.9), Minnesota is third (24.1), Bulls are tied for fifth (24.6) and Toronto is tied for eight (24.9).

Even more compelling evidence is the Raptors roster age is skewed by 35-year-old Goran Dragic who may not be with the team long term. Plus they’ve been posting these stats without two of their best defenders (Pascal Siakam and Chris Boucher) who are out injured.

The takeaway here is the OKC Thunder and Raptors specifically play a very similar style of offense (positionless ball) with defensive focus.  It’s a given Lu Dort will factor in this equation and SGA is committed to leading the way while improving on defense. Josh Giddey has shown two-way capability and his length should be a factor while the presence of Ty Jerome and Kenrich Williams who check off so many boxes should equate to success in energy categories.

I’m not suggesting the Thunder should be vying to be in the top five or feasting defensively.  However, if the Thunder truly wants to develop a culture and maintain their defensive culture then it’s not unreasonable to expect them to perform well scoring off forced turnovers and in the fast break.

We’ll keep an eye on this moving forward, but don’t be surprised if this young Thunder roster significantly rises up the ladder in these energy categories.