The OKC Thunder completed their preseason play on Thursday with an overtime loss giving them a 1-3 record. Looking ahead to this season that’s about the ratio the squad will likely produce in the regular season.
The writing is on the wall for the team to use this year for development and while the brain trust doesn’t come right out and say it the intention is to tank.
Last season the Thunder performed too well early and had to take drastic steps in the second half. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander‘s injury offered some assistance in the tanking effort. The team also chose to shut down Al Horford and use certain players sparingly. Yet, that wasn’t enough to grab one of the coveted bottom-three draft slots and OKC didn’t get a favorable lottery ball bounce.
It’s a catch 22 for the Thunder and head coach Mark Daigneault. On one hand, the goal is to improve daily and be competitive. Yet, in order for OKC to optimize their draft picks it’s best for them to lose in order to land the top draft pick.
How concerned should OKC Thunder be with SGA’s tepid preseason production?
Adding intrigue to the mix is Gilgeous-Alexander is among the handful of players who’ll likely be in the mix to win Most Improved Player. After missing most of the second half in 2021 he’s back healthy and if the preseason was any indication will be a marked man by opposing defenses.
His numbers in preseason weren’t exactly earth-shattering:
Game 1 versus Hornets: Shot 3 of 8 from the field, 1 of 4 from deep, 2 of 3 from the stripe for 9 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, and 4 turnovers in 17 minutes
Game 2 versus Bucks: Shot 5 of 10 from the field, 2 of 5 from deep for 12 points, 1 rebound, 6 assists, and 1 turnover in 19 minutes
Game 3 versus Nuggets: Shot 3 of 8 from the field, 1 of 5 from deep, 2 of 4 from the stripe for 9 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 blocks in 27 minutes
Extrapolating those three games he shot 11 of 26 from the field (42.3%) and 4 of 14 from the perimeter (28.5%) for an average of 10 points per game. SGA added 2.3 rebounds and 4.6 assists. In fairness, he didn’t log his typical minute allotment playing over 20 minutes only in the game versus Denver.
While it’s expected opponents have SGA as their primary fixation on the defensive chalkboard it’s not necessarily a huge red flag — yet. First of all, he’s likely going to play between 33 and 37 minutes per game (not 17 or 19). In preseason it was clear the Canadian was working to get the copious new teammates comfortable in the system and put that ahead of scoring.
Sure, his preseason efficiency isn’t ideal but it would be highly unlikely for him to take that huge of a dive once the games count. Last season SGA shot an incredible 50.8% from the field and 41.8% from deep. Replicating those stats would be a reach but isolating on his worst season it occurred in his second year (first with the OKC Thunder) when he averaged 47.1 and 34.7 percent from the field and perimeter.
That season he was surrounded by talent and in a new system with the OKC Thunder. Yet, as the season progressed he became more effective raising his 3-point efficiency to 40 percent in the playoffs.
OKC won’t simply give the ball to SGA every trip expecting him to score especially not with Daigneault’s scheme of ball movement. Rather, this team will look to force turnovers and get out in the fast break.
Two players who’ll shift opposing defensive strategy are Luguentz Dort and Josh Giddey. Especially if Dort keeps up his perimeter prowess and Giddey continues to play with the poise he displayed in the preseason. That will inevitably force opposing defenses to guard them as well and stop double or triple-teaming SGA.
What that adds up to is the fact that sleeping on SGA wouldn’t be smart because he’ll just make sure others are feasting and even then he’ll still find a way to get his. Bank on it!
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