Did the 2022 NBA Draft accelerate the OKC Thunder rebuild?

Trying to judge the impact of the OKC Thunder rookies on the team’s win total

The Oklahoma City Thunder were able to clean up in the 2022 NBA Draft, using the second overall pick on Chet Holmgren who has unicorn-like potential. While that saying is far overplayed in the NBA ecosystem, it truly fits Holmgren. His 7’1 thin frame with ball-handling, playmaking, and shooting ability provides OKC fans a ton of hope. Between the step-back triples, Dirk fades, and pick-and-pops with Josh Giddey this summer, it is easy to see why Sam Presti invested the best draft asset OKC has had since 2009 in Holmgren.

The OKC Thunder were far from over after Adam Silver announced the second overall pick, trading a trio of first-round picks for Ousmane Dieng provides a huge upside swing in the draft for Presti. With the very next selection, OKC nabbed Jalen Williams who shot 40 percent in Summer League and thrived in an off-ball scoring role an area this Thunder team needs dramatic improvement from.

With the 34th overall pick, Jaylin Williams being viewed as a flyer, the big staples of Mark Daigneault’s rotation from this rookie class are Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams. Adding those two into the mix of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Josh Giddey, Tre Mann, and the rest of the Thunder roster, and the win total can improve with relative ease.

However, with the tough Western Conference, and the uncertainty around what direction Sam Presti wants the team to take at the mid-way point, I think the ceiling for the win total will be somewhere in the 30s. It is incredibly hard to dramatically improve your win total, especially with the amount of come-from-behind wins OKC was afforded last year.

The Thunder’s expected win-loss last season was 21-61, in 2020-21 it was 15-37. OKC has already been playing above their skis game-to-game.

Before we see how training camp unfolds and before we see how the preseason unravels, I think the Thunder can reach 30 to 35 wins this season. When you compare that to previous seasons, that could get them close to the play-in as the tenth seed in the West each of the last eight seasons has turned in win totals of 34, 33, 34, 37, 42, 34, 33, and 39.

What is your way too early win total projection for the Oklahoma City Thunder in the 2022-23 NBA statement?