best, worst, and most likely case scenario for the OKC Thunder this season

The Oklahoma City Thunder’s most likely case scenario for the 2022-23 NBA regular season is to be better than last year

The Oklahoma City Thunder will be better than last season, there is just too much talent on this roster even with Chet Holmgren shelved for the entire year. That is why many vegas odds markers setting the over/under win total around 23.5 is so confusing for me. Sure, the Western Conference is stacked so they may not see that many more wins than last season, a year in which the Thunder led the league in 15-plus point comebacks which are bound to regress, but I still think the Thunder can at least hit the 24 win mark and cash in the over.

With all the optimism around the 5-1 preseason slate, I have remained consistent in not promising wins, but promising that the Thunder will be very fun night in and night out. However, for this prediction of the most likely outcome, I think the fanbase will be treated to serious progression from the young players and finish around the 7th worst record in the NBA.

If OKC falls right at seven, the Thunder would have a 7.5 percent chance at the first overall pick, a 7.8 percent chance at the 2nd overall pick, an 8.1 percent chance at the third overall pick, and an 8.5 percent chance at the fourth overall pick. The lowest they could fall is to pick ten, which has a 1.3 percent chance of happening.

A 32 percent chance to land in the top four of the loaded 2023 NBA Draft, while still having a fun year with a few more wins than expected and a ton of progression is a fantastic season to launch pad the OKC Thunder into a very fun summer of transactions and getting Chet Holmgren back for the 2023-24 season.

What is your best, worst, and most likely case scenario for the Oklahoma City Thunder this season in your opinion?