The Oklahoma City Thunder have successfully balanced their books this offseason.
They moved off of Luguentz Dort, Aaron Wiggins, and Isaiah Joe in separate trades in order to greatly reduce their luxury-tax bill. They'll hope that Ajay Mitchell, Cason Wallace, and Jared McCain can step into larger roles to replace the production of those three players.
But the piper will be calling again next offseason. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's contract taking the leap to roughly $60 million annually, the Thunder will also need to deal with extensions for both Mitchell and McCain as they enter their fourth NBA seasons. Assuming Wallace is extended this offseason, they'll also have an extra $15-20 million on the books to pay him into his second contract.
In theory, they can fit all of these players into their cap sheet if both Mitchell and McCain command modest extensions and ownership is willing to dip into the second apron. But if Mitchell excels in his sixth-man role this year, things could get complicated very quickly.
The next step in Mitchell's game, beyond increasing his aggression in getting to the basket, is hitting his perimeter shots consistently. If he makes that leap in 2026-27, he could be painfully out of the Thunder's reach when the time for his extension comes.
Ajay Mitchell has a painfully clear path to earning a major payday next offseason
Mitchell's development was one of Oklahoma City's most surprisingly pleasant storylines in 2025-26. After averaging just 6.5 points on limited minutes during his rookie campaign, injuries to the team's stars opened up an expanded role for him in his sophomore season. Mitchell delivered.
Across 57 games, Mitchell averaged 13.6 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 3.6 assists while sinking 34.7% of his attempts from beyond the arc. His breakout wasn't just confined to the regular season, either. He was perhaps the Thunder's best player in their second-round matchup with the Los Angeles Lakers, averaging 22.5 points on 56.3% shooting from the field across the four games of that series.
Health and consistency are the major concerns with Mitchell. But even if Wallace steps into the starting five this year over him, Mitchell has a clear path to making another offensive leap. He'll get heavy on-ball usage as the sixth man, and the Thunder will have the opportunity to stagger minutes and pair him with Gilgeous-Alexander for large swathes of game time.
Mitchell's game, for the most part, is already developed. He's quick and agile enough to get around his man and work his way downhill, and he has the complementary playmaking abilities to capitalize on those opportunities beyond simply forcing his way to the rim. Teams would already be scrambling to add him if he became available in restricted free agency.
But if he can start to hit his 3-point shots at, say, 37 or 38% in his third NBA season, that is the variable that would allow him to fully maximize his downhill skill-set. Teams would be forced to close out on him with more aggression, leaving room for him to compromise opposing defenses on a more consistent basis.
That's the leap Mitchell should be looking to make in 2026-27. But if he does, and his market value crawls closer to the four-year, $100 million he should be look to attain on his second contract, things could get tough for Oklahoma City relatively quickly.
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