The modern NBA punishes good teams who try to keep everyone together. The Oklahoma City Thunder are running the league right now, but on the horizon are difficult roster decisions. And the play of Ajay Mitchell thus far means Lu Dort is likely not long for the franchise.
Coming off of a championship, many NBA teams let their foot off the gas to start the next season. They know they are good enough to win, they got over the mountain, and the NBA season is long. What the Thunder have done to start the season is make it clear they are not "many" teams.
The Thunder are the exception, the young champion who comes out the next season and takes another step forward. They are 12-1 after demolishing the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers this week in a back-to-back, with a +15.5 net rating that would be the greatest of all time -- and that's after a pair of double-OT games to start the season.
It's not like the Thunder have even been fully healthy, either; Jalen Williams is yet to play a game, Chet Holmgren has missed time, and All-Defense wing Lu Dort has appeared in just seven contests of their 13 total games. The Thunder haven't missed a beat, in part because the reigning MVP is playing even better than last year -- and in part because they have a new breakout star.
Ajay Mitchell was shot out of a cannon to start the season and he hasn't looked back. The second-year second-rounder has established himself not only as a rotation player but as a starter-level guard, and he is filling the need opened up by Williams being out and Nikola Topic being unable to start his NBA career as he battles testicular cancer.
Mitchell has played in all 13 games for the Thunder, starting five, and is averaging 16.9 points per game. Among all 2024 draftees this season, that ranks third behind only Alex Sarr and Stephon Castle, a pair of Top-4 picks. Sam Presti drafted Mitchell 38th.
The 6'5" guard is attacking the rim with gusto, is a capable secondary playmaker, and while he isn't an Isaiah-Joe level sniper, he has hit some big shots from outside.
That's on offense - and it's his defensive game that has been the most impressive. Mitchell is long and active on defense, and he has been willing to take on some of the opponent's top scorers as Dort and Alex Caruso have missed time. With Cason Wallace and Mitchell on the wing, they have cruised defensively even with the absences.
The outcome of Mitchell's explosive leap forward has been a Thunder team that looks unbeatable -- and as you look long-term, it means Lu Dort is likely to end his Thunder tenure in the next year or so.
Lu Dort is not long for the Thunder
The NBA's new luxury tax apron system has changed the game for elite teams, as it's overtly punitive to keep an expensive roster together -- not simply financially, but in many other ways. Teams are limited in how they can draft, who they can sign and what trades they can make. If the Thunder want to continue contending for championships over the next decade, they will need to tread carefully with the second apron.
With SGA, J-Dub and Chet all on max deals, that means lowering costs somewhere else. Isaiah Hartenstein is a popular candidate as he makes close to $30 million and has a team option for the 2026-27 season -- but the Thunder have relied on his size and reliability over the last year-plus.
Another option is Lu Dort. As an undersized defensive wing, his effectiveness as a high-end starter was always going to be on a timer. He is 26 years old, so he is hardly cooked, but high-intensity perimeter defense is a young man's game. The impact of Wallace and Mitchell speaks to that.
Dort has been fine defensively to start the season, but he has been a disaster on offense. He is shooting just 19.4 percent from deep and averaging only 7.4 points per game, and teams are content to ignore him entirely and send help at Gilgeous-Alexander. If he is a significant negative on offense, it no longer makes sense to play Dort when Mark Daigneault has so many other options.
Dort is also on a team option for next season, and if he continues to be below-average on offense and Ajay Mitchell continues to be a reliable two-way force, the odds of the team keeping him around will continue to plummet. The Thunder love Dort -- but they love winning championships more.
That could very well mean Ajay Mitchell is forcing Lu Dort right off of the roster.