Chet Holmgren is at something of a career crossroads as he approaches the 2026-27 NBA season. He's coming off of the best regular season of his career, but also turned in a Conference Finals that has posed valid questions about his ability to assert himself as a scorer when the Oklahoma City Thunder need him to do so.
In many ways, Holmgren is approaching a make-or-break season in the same way that Karl-Anthony Towns was ahead of a legacy-altering 2025-26 campaign.
Though their question marks are by no means identical, Holmgren and Towns were both decorated and talented big men staring adversity in the face. Towns, for instance, had spent the previous two seasons helping his teams reach the Conference Finals, but also had glaring flaws that limited their ceilings.
Towns was widely accepted as a subpar defender. It's one of the primary reasons the Minnesota Timberwolves were willing to give up four first-round draft picks for fellow big man Rudy Gobert to anchor the defense. Along those same lines, Holmgren's question marks empowered the Thunder to pay big money to retain Isaiah Hartenstein.
Against all odds, Towns changed the narrative in 2026—during his 11th season and at 30 years of age. Holmgren must now do the same with his own shortcomings. They may not be identical to Towns' considering Holmgren is an elite defender, but they exist nevertheless.
In Holmgren's case, it will be a matter of learning to assert himself more on offense and rising to the occasion against Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs.
Can Chet Holmgren rewrite the narrative in 2026-27?
Holmgren averaged a career-best 17.1 points per game and 21.3 points per 36 minutes in 2025-26. In saying that, he also averaged the same number of field goal attempts per 36 minutes in 2025-26 as he did in 2024-25 at 14.0.
Optimism persisted that Holmgren was turning a corner considering he'd just helped the Thunder win a championship in 2025, but the Conference Finals exposed his shortcomings.
Holmgren shot 51.0 percent from the field against Wembanyama and the Spurs in the Conference Finals, but attempted just 7.3 shots per game. He reached 10 field goal attempts just once in the entire series, put up a mere two shots in Game 7, and played fewer than 30 minutes in four of the seven outings as the Thunder's bid to repeat as champions ended a round early.
Holmgren actually played strong defense on Wembanyama, holding him to 10-of-23 shooting from the field, but he was virtually non-existent on offense.
OKC reaches new level of dominance when Chet Holmgren is assertive
It may seem silly to focus on just one series, but the Spurs are the reigning Western Conference champions with a superstar leading a cast of exhilarating young players. As such, the Thunder are likely to encounter San Antonio again as they push for another title.
Moreover, Holmgren's lack of offensive assertiveness applies to far more than just one series—and when he pushes past it, the Thunder are all but impossible to defeat.
It's an unfortunate truth, as the Thunder went 7-0 during the playoffs when Holmgren scored at least 15 points and 4-4 when he failed to. Along those same lines, Oklahoma City was 22-1 during the regular season when Holmgren scored at least 20 points and 23-1 when he attempted at least 13 shots.
That beckons the question: Why isn't Holmgren asserting himself on a more consistent basis when the Thunder are so clearly dominant when he does?
Perhaps It's on head coach Mark Daigneault or point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to get Holmgren more involved on offense. Perhaps it's a little bit of everyone's "fault," if that's the right word for it. The reality is, the Thunder are almost unbeatable when Holmgren asserts himself as a scorer.
Until Holmgren gets past whatever is preventing him from doing so on a consistent basis, he'll be in the same boast as pre-2026 Towns as a great talent with ceiling-deciding question marks.
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