Heading into 2026-27, all eyes are going to be on Chet Holmgren when it comes to the next steps for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Thunder didn't lose their Western Conference Finals series to the San Antonio Spurs purely as a result of Holmgren's ineffectiveness on the offensive end. It was the absences of Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell, and the resulting lack of offensive depth and infrastructure, that truly caused their demise.
Holmgren's disappearance against Victor Wembanyama and company certainly didn't help, though, and it forced a glaring spotlight onto the fourth-year center and his still-developing game.
We know what Holmgren can be on the defensive end of the court. If it weren't for Wembanyama, it's likely that he would've won the Defensive Player of the Year award in 2025-26. And as much as he needs to improve on the offensive end, gaining more confidence and more physicality near the basket, that's not where his long-term star potential ultimately lies.
You can count on Holmgren to issue a poignant reminder of that fact pretty quickly into this new campaign.
Chet Holmgren is a defensive star—and his offensive efforts shouldn't be the focal point of his game
This is not to say that Holmgren's performance in that series against San Antonio wasn't disappointing. He averaged just 10.7 points while shooting 51% from the field across those seven games. With Williams out for much of that series, that's simply unacceptable.
If Holmgren is going to work his way into true stardom, he's going to need to find a way to get to his spots on the floor more consistently. He can't shrink in the face of length or physicality, and he needs to develop a more consistent mindset on the offensive end of the court.
But on a team with Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams, that's not his primary role, nor should it be. A vast portion of Holmgren's value comes in his ability to roam the court as a shot-blocker and mobile defender, anchoring Oklahoma City's highly switchable defense next to Isaiah Hartenstein in the frontcourt. The Thunder were 5.5 points better per 100 possessions on the defensive end last season with Holmgren on the court, and he was third among all centers in defensive estimated plus-minus (per Dunks & Threes)
Both Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso finished above Holmgren in that category. But as impactful as a perimeter defender can be, especially in the way Oklahoma City employs them, a truly viable defense depends upon an anchor like Holmgren.
Holmgren is certainly aware of the criticisms that have been levied against him this offseason. You can bet he'll come out in 2026-27 with an enhanced aggression on the offensive end of the court, and he needs to develop that if he wants to take the next leap in his game.
But Holmgren doesn't need to average 20 points per game to perform the function he's been assigned on a championship-worthy Thunder roster. His value comes primarily on the defensive end, and it's his confidence there (and his ability to anchor Oklahoma City's defensive attack) that will truly define the outcome of this next season for the fifth-year big man.
His offensive game needs to be developed, but let's not shift the focus too heavily away from what Holmgren should ultimately be doing best.
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