With the conclusion of the final Play-In Tournament matchup on Friday night, the Oklahoma City Thunder now have their first-round matchup set in stone.
The Phoenix Suns have outperformed expectations all seasons under first-year head coach Jordan Ott, and they will now get the opportunity to face off against the Thunder in a seven-game series. In all likelihood, this should be a relatively easy matchup for the Thunder.
They defeated the eight-seed Memphis Grizzlies by historic margins last season as the top seed in the West. Although Phoenix has a greater defensive connectivity than that Memphis team did, they realistically should not pose that much greater of a challenge. They finished the season 17th in the NBA in offensive rating and 24th in true shooting percentage. By almost all measures, this is not an offense that can prevail over the most dominant defense in the NBA.
But the Thunder, despite all their strengths, still have one glaring weakness— the amount of 3-pointers they concede to their opponents. It could Phoenix's only (long-shot) ticket to a massive first-round upset.
If the Suns shoot well from deep, it could mean trouble for the Thunder
The Suns were expected to be in the basement of the Western Conference this season after stripping back their roster and entering, at the very least, a short-term reset. But their acquisiton of Dillon Brooks in the Kevin Durant trade, combined with a number of savvy rotational moves, has landed them back in the playoffs.
Their offense hasn't been great. What's kept them afloat has been their ability to shoot at a relatively high clip from beyond the arc.
Phoenix averaged the second-fewest points in the paint in the entire NBA this season. Their 2-point field-goal attempt share was also among the lowest in the league. They, in short, do not rely on the interior to run their offense— the place where the Thunder would be most able to feast on an undermatched team defensively.
Instead, they averaged the fifth-most 3-point attempts this season, shooting 36.1% from beyond the arc as a team. Across their two play-in games, they largely matched these figures, shooting 36% against the Portland Trail Blazers and 36.7% against the Golden State Warriors.
The Thunder, for their part, allowed the sixth-worst 3-point percentage to their opponents. Although they have a plethora of capable perimeter defenders and are often capable of forcing teams off the line, it's a weakness that can leave a hole open for teams whose offense runs from beyond the arc.
Realistically, one or two hot 3-point shooting nights from their opponent won't break the Thunder. They're too skilled, too connected, too dominant.
But if there's any window open for the Suns to make the series competitive, it lies beyond the arc.
Add us as a preferred source on Google