The Oklahoma City Thunder didn't move up in the Draft Lottery on Sunday afternoon. And that puts Isaiah Hartenstein on notice that his job may not be secure next season.
Saying that the Thunder have needed Hartenstein the last two seasons is an understatement. He has been a stalwart in the middle, a mass of shot-blocking, rebounding, screen-setting humanity starting next to Chet Holmgren. Much of the credit for the Thunder's historically good defense goes to I-Hart.
Would the Thunder move on from Hartenstein?
Why, then, would the Thunder want to move on from him? On the surface, they don't. He has been a two-way stud, is on a fair contract and fits their system perfectly. They are on track to win a second consecutive championship with Hartenstein starting in the middle. If they could, they would keep him for next season and beyond.
The problem is money -- and, more specifically, the NBA's new penalties on teams that try to spend too much of it. When a team's payroll crosses certain thresholds called "tax aprons" the league's new rulebook inflicts harsh penalties on teams. And the Thunder are about to get really expensive.
Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are all signed to long-term deals (great) that are expensive and kicking in at the same time (not as great). With the team's payroll spiking next season, they will rocket above those tax aprons if they cannot cut salary somewhere. The logical answer is Isaiah Hartenstein.
When Hartenstein signed his three-year contract two offseasons ago, it came with a third-year team option. The Thunder have the ability to decline that option and let him hit unrestricted free agency, clearing his money off of their books entirely.
The Thunder can replace Hartenstein
Doing such a bold move only makes sense if they have a replacement, and right now, there is not a perfect candidate for that spot on the roster. Jaylin Williams is a different kind of big, and rookie Thomas Sorber is missing his entire first season due to injury.
Enter the 2026 NBA Draft. The league was terrified that the Thunder would move up from the 12th slot to win a Top 4 pick, adding another star to an absolutely star-studded roster. In such a scenario, the Thunder would be adding a forward or a combo guard, not a center.
What happened instead if that the Thunder failed to move up, staying put with the 12th pick. In that range, the guards start to thin out, the wings and forwards are covered in warts -- and the centers abound.
The Thunder could draft Aday Mara, a hulking 7'3" center who manned the middle for the Michigan Wolverines to win the title last year. Hannes Steinbach could be available as well, a skilled German big just like Hartenstein. Jayden Quaintance has elite defensive upside.
If the Thunder do draft a center in the first round for the second consecutive year, it will be a loud signal to Hartenstein that he should start polishing up his resume. They have to cut salary somewhere, and building up a cadre of inexpensive young centers puts them in a position to cut Hartenstein's.
The Thunder would love to keep him around. They would love to keep everyone around. But if push comes to shove, the draft lottery makes it plausible to move on from Hartenstein.
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