The Oklahoma City Thunder's Game 1 loss to the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference Finals shouldn't be a reason to panic.
It should be a reason, though, for reflection. Before that game, the Thunder hadn't truly been challenged by a formidable defensive front at any point in this playoff run. The way San Antonio played on Monday made the Los Angeles Lakers' defensive attack seem pedestrian.
They didn't double Shai Gilgeous-Alexander relentlessly, but they have enough capable perimeter defenders to make things difficult for the Thunder on the outside. Combine that with Victor Wembanyama's suffocating presence in the paint, and it's clear that any offensive flow will be difficult for Oklahoma City to come by in this series.
In Game 1, the Thunder responded by surrounding Gilgeous-Alexander with shooters as often as possible. Isaiah Hartenstein saw his minutes severely cut, while Ajay Mitchell, Jared McCain, and the surprisingly hot Alex Caruso saw extensive run.
If Mark Daigneault decides to lean into this strategy, McCain could quickly become Oklahoma City's playoff hero.
Jared McCain needs to stay hot from beyond the arc for the Thunder to win this series
Of course, it seems odd to hinge a Western Conference Finals series on a player that, just a few months ago, was barely cracking the rotation for the Philadelphia 76ers. But if there's one X-factor to identify beyond the team's stars and the ascendant Caruso, it's got to be McCain.
McCain's shot 51.9% from beyond the arc through nine playoff games. His minutes have fluctuated, but he's shown a consistent willingness to take his shots whenever he's given the opportunity. For such a young player, there's absolutely no hesitation on McCain's part.
Couple that with the struggles of Isaiah Joe, who's shot 37.5% from 3-point range during this playoff run but has seen his opportunities consistently diminished, and McCain's importance becomes crystal clear.
The Thunder survived their last playoff run shooting just 33.8% from beyond the arc as a team. That won't cut it against San Antonio.
The Spurs' defense thrives not just on limiting paint opportunities but by making life difficult beyond the arc. Opponents have shot just 32.6% from 3-point range against them this postseason.
Perhaps Daigneault will figure out a way to keep his preferred starting lineup and rotational hierarchy intact, allowing him to utilize Hartenstein and Jalen Williams as extensively as the team has all season when they've been available. But if the Spurs' defense continues to suffocate, Oklahoma City will need to turn to its shooters.
Without a doubt, that would open the door for some heroics from McCain.
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