With their trade of Luguentz Dort this offseason, the Oklahoma City Thunder took a major gamble on the abilities of young guards Cason Wallace and Ajay Mitchell to step into enhanced roles in 2026-27.
Dort's offensive efficiency declined markedly over the course of last season, and it was time to move on given the $17.7 million price point on his team option. But both Wallace and Mitchell are going to need to show improvement if the Thunder's rotation is going to climb back to its championship status.
For Wallace—who is projected to be the team's starter in the backcourt alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander—that improvement needs to come on the offensive end of the court.
He's already one of the league's most disruptive perimeter defenders, and he has similar point-of-attack upside to Dort. But Oklahoma City needs the fourth-year guard to start to hit his shots at a higher rate and show an elevated confidence with the ball in his hands if they're going to trust him long-term with a starting spot.
A developmental path similar to Dort's, especially in terms of the perimeter efficiency he found in 2023-24 and 2024-25, would be highly encouraging for Wallace. But if Wallace is able to take those strides without a contract already in hand, the Thunder could be left paying more than they may have originally bargained for on Wallace's next deal.
Cason Wallace's developmental path is clear—and the Thunder may soon be footing the bill
There's always a chance Oklahoma City gets a deal done this offseason with Wallace. He's certainly earned it, and having the certainty heading into next offseason likely outweighs any risk they'd take on by signing him ahead of restricted free agency.
Wallace averaged 8.6 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 2.6 assists last season while sinking 35.1% of his attempts from beyond the arc. Although he's shown flashes as an on-ball threat and a complementary playmaker, his primary value right now is on the defensive end of the court. The Thunder were fine with that sort of player in the starting lineup earlier in Dort's career, and it seems like they'd be more than fine with it now.
But Dort became a truly valuable player for this organization when his perimeter shot started to fall. Coming into 2023-24, Dort was a 33.2% 3-point shooter. He hit those shots at 39.4% clip in 2023-24 and a 41.2% clip in 2024-25.
The next step in Wallace's development likely falls upon those same lines. If he can fill that role as the team's primary perimeter defender while hitting his perimeter shots at a rate similar to Dort's, that's likely the maximized version of what Wallace can be.
As of now, he would likely be set to earn somewhere between $20 and $23 million annually on his next deal. Dort's five-year, $82.5 million pact was not only signed when the market was lower but also prior to the 2022-23 season—a full year before Dort became the offensively impactful player we saw during Oklahoma City's championship run.
But the outlook for Wallace's next deal and for the team's cap sheet as a whole look markedly different four years later. The Thunder will owe over $150 million to their trio of Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren in 2027-28, and they'll also need to deal with extensions for Mitchell and Jared McCain in the near future.
If Wallace is able to follow Dort's path in 2026-27, things could quickly get dicey when it comes to negotiating the young guard's next contract.
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