The NBA has not seen a back-to-back champion since the Golden State Warriors’ reign of terror in the mid-to-late 2010s. Parity in the league is at an all-time high, and the new CBA only makes it more difficult for a dynasty to emerge.
However, if a team is capable of breaking through through the CBA’s new barriers, it’s the Oklahoma City Thunder. Their foundational players, savvy extensions, and mountain of draft capital may be enough to sustain long-term royalty status in a dynasty-less league.
How does the CBA prevent dynasties?
Before the new CBA, it was relatively easy for a contender to acquire players via trade as long as the owner was willing to stomach a significant luxury tax. That’s not the case anymore because of the aprons.
If a team’s total salary is above the first apron, then they cannot send more salary than they receive in a trade. And if the team’s salary is greater than the second apron, then they also cannot send multiple players in the same trade.
For example, Nets forward Cameron Johnson will be a popular target for contenders this offseason. The sharpshooter is set to earn $20,543,478 during the 2026 season. How easy would it be for the Thunder to acquire him based on the different apron levels?
- Non-apron team: Need to send at least $13,043,478 in salary
- First apron team: Need to send at least $20,543,478 in salary
- Second apron team: Need to send one player who earns at least $20,543,478 in salary
That’s the difference between being able to trade Kenrich Williams and Ousmane Dieng for Johnson versus being required to trade either Isaiah Hartenstein or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to legally fulfill the second apron restrictions.
Plus, first and second apron teams cannot sign a player on the buyout market who was making more than the non-taxpayer mid-level exception right before being waived. For example, numerous contenders like the Celtics and Suns were barred from claiming Ben Simmons.
In other words, the aprons make roster construction a nightmare for contenders with extremely expensive cores – a future that awaits OKC.
Gilgeous-Alexander will earn roughly 24 percent of the salary cap during the 2026 and 2027 seasons. He’s expected to sign a supermax extension soon, which means SGA will take up 35 percent of the cap in 2028 and beyond.
Meanwhile, Jalen Williams and Chet Homgren are expected to each earn 25 percent of the cap in their new deals. If they make an All-NBA team, win Defensive Player of the Year, or win MVP, then that figure jumps to 30 percent.
Essentially, the Thunder must soon pay anywhere from 74 percent to 95 percent of the salary cap to their big three once the 2026 offseason arrives.
How can the Thunder sustain a dynasty despite the CBA’s restrictions?
This is where Sam Presti comes into play. He’s stacking team-friendly contracts in preparation for this salary cap apocalypse.
Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins combine to earn only 11.9 percent of the projected cap in 2027 and 10.4 percent in 2028. Joe then becomes a free agent, but Wiggins is locked down at 3.9 percent in 2029.
That’s basically a rookie contract!
Ajay Mitchell is another name to monitor. The Thunder can decline his team option this offseason and sign the rookie to a team-friendly, long-term deal. Cason Wallace’s rookie contract runs through the 2027 season, while Nikola Topic and Dillon Jones are locked down through the 2028 season.
Additionally, Presti’s hoard of draft picks will be incredibly useful for maintaining depth around the stars. Ideally, he selects two first-round prospects every draft and swaps extra picks for distant future picks. This strategy would give OKC a consistent wave of rookie contracts for at least the next decade. Given the current treasure chest, there’s a universe where OKC has multiple first round picks in the next 15 drafts if Presti continues to push back picks.
Overall, the aprons promote long-term planning, destroy last-minute moves, and cause contenders to lose key role players in free agency (ex: Nuggets seeing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope walk in free agency last offseason). The Thunder are setting themselves up to avoid these anti-dynasty guidelines through shrewd extensions and patient draft capital moves.