Part of what has been so impressive about the Oklahoma City Thunder's early-season dominance is the fact that they have largely succeeded without one of their best players: fourth-year guard/forward Jalen Williams.
Williams missed the first 19 games of the season recovering from offseason wrist surgery. In that time, the Thunder went 19-1.
Since he returned, however, Oklahoma City has suffered six losses in his 18 games, and Williams' production appears to have taken a minor step back since last season. Through those 18 games, Williams is averaging 17.2 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 5.4 assists on a diet of 29.4 minutes per game.
What is truly concerning, though, is the level to which his performance from beyond the arc has taken a dip. Not only is he shooting just 31.3% from 3-point range on the season, but his waning confidence in his perimeter shot over the last few games could prove to be disastrous.
The Thunder need Jalen Williams back as a perimeter shooter to make their offensive structure flow
If there's one criticism to be levied against Oklahoma City, it's that they are often dependent upon a somewhat predictable offensive structure. They love to capitalize upon the downhill gravity of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and, to an extent, Williams in order to gain solid looks from beyond the arc.
When the 3-point shot does not fall, they can be left in limbo offensively.
Their last two losses to the Phoenix Suns and the Charlotte Hornets encapsulate this perfectly. In a 27-point loss to Charlotte, they shot just 28.2% as a team from beyond the arc. Against Phoenix, they shot 31.3%.
It's no surprise that Williams has needed time to find his footing since his return to action. His offseason was marred by injury and rehab, and he was gone for enough time that the Thunder established a solid offensive structure without him.
It's also clear that his jumper remains off-kilter as his wrist still heals.
What is highly concerning, however, is that this has clearly impacted his confidence in his shot-taking. Over his last six games, Williams has attempted just 11 shots from 3-point range: an average of 1.8 attempts per game.
Even in his first 12 games this season, Williams was averaging 3.1 attempts from beyond the arc. In 2024-25, he averaged a career-high 4.9.
Williams' game does not live and die on the perimeter, but his ability to hit those shots at least semi-consistently is hugely important to the way Oklahoma City wants to play. He will not gain his confidence back if that aspect of his game is minimized.
The Thunder need Williams on the perimeter, and as a result, his dip in production and confidence is majorly concerning.