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Thunder betting Spurs will lose the long game in Western Conference Finals

May 22, 2026; San Antonio, Texas, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Jared McCain (3) reacts with forward Jaylin Williams (6) in the second half during game three of the western conference finals for the 2026 NBA playoffs at Frost Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images
May 22, 2026; San Antonio, Texas, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Jared McCain (3) reacts with forward Jaylin Williams (6) in the second half during game three of the western conference finals for the 2026 NBA playoffs at Frost Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images | Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images

The Oklahoma City Thunder were staring down an early 15-0 deficit to start Game 3 against the San Antonio Spurs on Friday night.

Of course, as the late, great Kobe Bryant once said about a seven-game series, “job's not finished.” 

He knew, as does this Thunder team, that no matter the score of a game or series, until one team gets to four wins, anything can happen.

That mindset allowed the Thunder to absorb the Spurs' massive opening-game blow, as OKC rallied for a crucial 123-108 comeback win to take a 2-1 lead in this Western Conference Finals matchup.

Now just two wins away from consecutive Finals berths, OKC will continue to have this long-term mindset that San Antonio just might not be able to keep up with.

Thunder are too deep for this iteration of the Spurs

A quick glance at the minutes leaders for this year's conference finals should elicit some “yeeesh” reactions. 

Leading the way in total minutes is two-time MVP Shai Gilgeous Alexander, who has played a whopping 125 minutes this series. Tied with him is Victor Wembanyama.

Four of the next eight minutes in the pecking order are Devin Vassell (124), Stephon Castle (121), Julian Champagnie (115), and Dylan Harper (89). 

The only other two Thunder players in the top 10 are Chet Holmgren (95) and Alex Caruso (81), who have both played under 100 minutes in three games. 

Traditionally, as the playoffs advance, teams tend to shorten their lineups in order to keep their best players on the floor as much as possible. In this year’s Western Conference Finals, though, San Antonio is practically living, and potentially dying, by its five main guys.

While De’Aaron Fox returning will give the Spurs another player to spread out the mileage, OKC just has too much depth for San Antonio to keep up with. 

Not only are the total minutes heavily skewed towards the Spurs starters, but, aside from Game 1, only Gilgeous-Alexander has played more than 30 minutes in all three games for the Thunder. Just look at the minutes spread game-by-game below:

Game 1

Minutes Played

OKC

San Antonio

10+

10

20+

7

30+

Game 2

Minutes Played

OKC

San Antonio

10+

8

9

20+

7

6

30+

1

4

Game 3

Minutes Played

OKC

San Antonio

10+

9

9

20+

8

5

30+

1

5

The reason for this constricting of minutes for San Antonio is that when Wembanyama is off the floor, the Spurs are a minus-38 in 31 minutes of action. The Thunder, meanwhile, are a plus-7 in 29 minutes without SGA.

Those drastic differences in raw plus-minus are due to the fact that OKC’s bench is outscoring San Antonio’s 183-64.

Yes, OKC was down 15-0 to start Friday night, but over the remaining 9:23, they outscored the Spurs 123-93. Oklahoma City’s depth is proving to be the difference not only in this series, but in the playoffs.

The Thunder understand that one game on its own doesn’t determine a series. There is no question they are built for the long haul, displaying a cast of characters that can contribute on any given night. The only real question worth asking is, does San Antonio?

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