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Thunder can't avoid the painful reality of their ongoing roster crunch

No matter how smoothly they execute this offseason, their ability to return to the apex of the NBA is largely out of their control.
Nov 29, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder coach Mark Daigneault reacts during the game against the Los Angeles Lakers at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Nov 29, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder coach Mark Daigneault reacts during the game against the Los Angeles Lakers at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

At this point, most of us have come to terms with the fact that the Oklahoma City Thunder didn't win the championship in 2025-26.

Still, it's painful to think about what could've been had Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell been healthy in the Western Conference Finals. Could the Thunder have been a better matchup for the New York Knicks? Would the extra ball-handling and offensive acumen have been enough to overcome the half-court struggles that plagued Oklahoma City all year?

As the Thunder's roster continues to slim down under the watchful eye of the new CBA, these are questions worth thinking about— if only because the health of the team's stars will be more important next year as their veteran talent continues to depart.

The general consensus, though, is that Oklahoma City simply needs a healthy campaign to get back on track for their dynasty aspirations in 2026-27. In Bleacher Report's latest power rankings, drawn up by Andy Bailey, this exact sentiment is reflected in the Thunder's third-place ranking.

"But ultimately, the Thunder getting back to the mountaintop probably depends on little more than health. It's reasonable to believe that if OKC had Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell at 100 percent, it would've beaten the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference Finals." Andy Bailey, Bleacher Report

As hopeful as this sentiment may seem, however, it also spotlights an unfortunate truth for the Thunder. As the roster gets a greater injection of young talent, the team will be more heavily at the mercy of the health of its stars, and the margin for error is already thinner than it's been the past two seasons.

As the roster gets younger, the Thunder will be at the mercy of the health of their stars

This year never seemed to come together for Williams. He missed the start of the season as he rehabbed his offseason wrist surgery, and then various hamstring issues kept him out for large portions of the regular season and, ultimately, much of the Thunder's postseason run.

It seems as though he should be good to go for 2026-27. But Oklahoma City's injury concerns extend even beyond that. Hartenstein has been a massively important piece in each of the Thunder's last two playoff runs, but his minutes need to be carefully managed during the regular season in order to ensure his availability. He played in just 57 games in 2024-25, and he appeared in just 47 in 2025-26.

The injection of young talent, including Aday Mara and Bennett Stirtz, gives the Thunder some extra insurance both in the backcourt and at the center position. But with veteran pieces like Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe (and likely Lu Dort) off the roster, the keys will now be handed over to players like Mitchell and Cason Wallace.

This is a natural part of the roster-building process under the new CBA. A team as well-run as the Thunder is able to quickly replace their departing talent with cost-controlled rookies.

But to play the 'if they're healthy' card is far from a guaranteed path back into contention. What the Thunder had before in terms of their depth was not enough to account for the absences of Williams and Mitchell. Can they lend any greater confidence to a bench that has now gotten significantly younger and less experienced?

By all accounts, the Thunder are the deepest team in the NBA. But as their roster crunch continues, it's impossible to act like those lingering health concerns can just fade into the background. It's the true separator between this Oklahoma City squad and another championship, and their moves this offseason, while necessary, have made the margin for error even thinner.

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