Throughout his tenure with the OKC Thunder, Cason Wallace has established himself as one of the most promising young two-way guards the game has to offer. Now, with an opportunity to take on the starting two role what with the offseason departure of Lu Dort, many believe a true breakout campaign could be on the horizon for the 22-year-old.
However, while such a trajectory certainly sounds logical, it is far from a guarantee.
Yes, Wallace is certainly a tremendous on-court talent who has proven capable of stepping up in major ways when entrusted with more on-court duties.
With that being said, the impact he's had in such situations has been more evident through the eye test and advanced metrics than through the general breakout-determining counting stats.
Cason Wallace's visible impact may be capped with Thunder
Granted, advanced stats are certainly just as important as traditional per-game stats when determining a player's positive effects on a team.
Last season, the Thunder placed in the 94 percentile in point differential (plus-11.9), the 96 percentile in opponent turnover percentage (17.6), and the 97 percentile in opponent points per 100 possessions (105.7) with Wallace on the floor.
However, while logging a whopping 26.6 minutes per night, aside from his elite stealing skills (1.9 per game), his 8.6 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 2.6 assists on 35.1 percent shooting from deep were far from jaw-dropping.
Heck, when slotting into the starting lineup in 58 games he still only came away with less-than-stellar averages of 9.3 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 2.9 assists.
Again, traditional counting stats should by no means be the primary indicator for a player's importance to a team. Clearly, Wallace has been invaluable throughout his time in OKC.
However, considering his established track record when serving as a first-five talent, coupled with the fact that he's still very clearly the fourth option at best on this team behind the likes of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren, expecting anything close to an eye-popping breakout from Wallace may be a bit of wishful thinking.
Cason Wallace could lead the league in steals as Thunder starter
Should Wallace ultimately earn the starting nod next season, the expectation should not necessarily be north of 15 points or 5.0-plus assists per game averages.
However, perhaps him stepping in as the new primary perimeter defender in place of the departed Dort could lead him to claim another career-high metric in the steals department.
As mentioned, Wallace came away from last season averaging 1.9 steals per game, which had him tied for second in the league among those who logged 50 or more games played.
What's interesting about where he stacked up in this hierarchy is the fact that the only two players who fell in line above him, Ausar Thompson and Dyson Daniels, both served as their respective team's go-to perimeter defenders in the starting lineup.
Wallace, meanwhile, fell behind Dort in such rankings on the Thunder.
Interestingly enough, when he was found taking on a starting role during the regular season, Wallace's averages in this category jumped up to an average of 2.1 per game, higher than both aforementioned ballers.
Based on his past production in such a role, should he ultimately win the starting shooting guard position, there's a real chance Wallace could wrap up the 2026-27 season leading the entire league in steals.
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