Victor Wembanyama may be the odds-on favorite to take home the illustrious Hakeem Olajuwon Trophy during this upcoming 2025-26 campaign, but OKC Thunder big man Chet Holmgren is someone who should be viewed as being right on his tail.
In fact, if one or two things go his way, the 23-year-old could rather realistically take home Defensive Player of the Year honors himself.
Thunder big man the only player who can match Wemby's production
The fact of the matter is, Holmgren is one of the only, if not truly the only, players in the NBA who can seemingly match Wemby's stifling defensive production.
Frankly, the advanced metrics only seem to suggest that, despite what outside chatter and perceptions may be, the gap between these two is not all that wide.
We're talking about the anchor of last year's historic Thunder defensive unit, who, when on the floor, had Oklahoma City boasting an elite defensive rating of 105.6 while allowing opponents to score just 107.3 points per 100 possessions and, along the way, boasted an effective field goal percentage of 51.3, ranking in the 95 and 93 percentile, respectively.
On top of this, Holmgren contested 93 percent of opponent shot attempts as the closest defender, the second-best mark in the league since the start of last season, and held opponents to just 33 percent shooting from the floor (minimum 40 shots defended), the lowest on the season.
Add all of this to the fact that he's shown steady improvements in both boxing out and in the defensive rebounding department (10.3 defensive boards per 100 possessions in 2023-24 compared to 11.4 in 2024-25), and there's no doubt that, no matter how dominant he already appears to be, the big man still has room for growth in this part of the game, which should be terrifying -- especially to Wembanyama.
At the moment, there are already a few specific variables that could go against the Spurs star's front-runner status for Defensive Player of the Year.
The first of which is the fact that, even with his presence on the team, since being drafted back in 2023, San Antonio hasn't ranked higher than 21 in the league in defensive rating. The concept of a DPOY winner being on a bottom-half defensive unit is quite far-fetched, and history only backs up such a notion.
The second, and perhaps most publicized, is the very concerning health status of Wembanyama, who was held to just 46 games played last season due to being diagnosed with deep vein thrombosis.
Playing fewer than 65 games would automatically make him ineligible for the award, no matter what his numbers and advanced stats may say.
Assuming he can stay healthy (which, as is the case with Wemby, is admittedly a sizable question mark), there's no doubt that, come year's end, the Thunder stud will be a serious contender for the Defensive Player of the Year award.
However, should something happen to San Antonio's cornerstone that would take him out of serious contention for the achievement, Holmgren would presumably then be the next man up in the favoritism pecking order.