To be clear, the Oklahoma City Thunder are and should be the clear favorites in their upcoming second-round matchup with the Los Angeles Lakers.
The Lakers offense struggled mightily through the final couple games of their first-round series with the Houston Rockets, and the Thunder showed time and time again during the regular season just how wide the gap is between them and Los Angeles. They went 4-0 against the Lakers in 2025-26, with their final matchup being a 123-87 beatdown.
If Oklahoma City is on top of their game defensively, which should be expected, Los Angeles will have an immensely difficult time advancing to the Western Conference Finals.
But this is where the Thunder's one lingering weakness could come back to haunt them. They've struggled all season to prevent opponents from sinking their 3-point opportunities. The Lakers' path to making this series competitive, therefore, lies firmly beyond the arc.
Lakers are ill-equipped to face the Thunder offensively, apart from one key category
Oklahoma City, night-in and night-out, consistently presents one of the most connected and formidable defensive fronts in the league. They have multiple shot-blocking presences in the paint, and they have the persistence to dodge screens and make every offensive possession difficult on the perimeter.
Despite those facts, though, teams have still shot excellently against them from beyond the arc. The Thunder's opponents shot 36.9% from 3-point range over the course of the regular season— good for 25th in the NBA in that category. They also allowed the seventh-most 3-point attempts in the league.
This is partly due to how swarming and suffocating the Thunder's defense can be on the interior. Teams often settle for perimeter shots, and Oklahoma City is for the most part happy to let them fly, especially when they're contested looks.
But Los Angeles, even without Luka Doncic in the fold, had an excellent set of first-round shooting performances. They're currently knocking down 38.6% of their attempts from beyond the arc in the playoffs, second to only the San Antonio Spurs.
Of course, shooting numbers are always prone to fluctuate wildly. Neither the Spurs nor the Lakers finished in the top-10 in 3-point percentage during the regular season. If Los Angeles goes cold from beyond the arc like the Phoenix Suns did, this series could quickly be over.
But if they continue to heat up, the Lakers offense could pose a much greater challenge than many Thunder fans are likely expecting.
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