The NBA Draft lottery drawing will occur Monday night at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Considering the OKC Thunder won't be playing Game 5 until Tuesday, fans could and likely should instead look to invest their attention in the upcoming festivities, as there are a few specific storylines that could send them over the moon with sheer excitement.
Thunder’s first round pick via Philadelphia 76ers
During the initial stages of OKC’s rebuild after the 2020 season, they agreed to absorb veteran big man Al Horford’s contract in exchange for youth and draft capital.
One of the pieces in that package was a top-six protected 2025 first rounder via the 76ers.
The timing could not be better, as injuries to Joel Embiid and Jared McCain caused Philadelphia to finish with the fifth-worst record in the NBA.
So what does this mean for the Thunder heading into Monday night?
Based on the current lottery odds, the 76ers have a 63.9 percent chance of landing within the top six and subsequently keeping their pick. That leaves a 36.1 percent chance of OKC receiving either the seventh, eighth, or ninth overall pick from Philadelphia.
If the Thunder get lucky, then they would add a tantalizing prospect on a rookie contract right when the team is about to become expensive. OKC could also dangle the coveted draft pick in negotiations this offseason for a veteran like Cameron Johnson or even perhaps in a blockbuster Giannis Antetokounmpo deal.
Where the Sixers land will be the biggest storyline for OKC on lottery night.
Where the Thunder’s rivals land in lottery
San Antonio and Houston are ascending young teams with plenty of assets to acquire a superstar this offseason, while Dallas will be a strong contender if Kyrie Irving makes a full recovery from his torn ACL.
Any of these three franchises landing a premium pick would be disastrous for the Thunder.
Spurs
- 6.7 percent chance at Cooper Flagg
- 29.6 percent chance at top-four pick
Rockets
- 3.8 percent chance at Flagg
- 17.3 percent chance at top-four pick
Mavericks
- 1.8 percent chance at Flagg
- 8.5 percent chance at top-four pick
Given these numbers, there’s a 46.7 percent chance that at least one of these franchises secures a top-four pick and an 11.8 percent chance that Flagg goes to one of these three teams.
Here’s the magic number for OKC fans – 19.2 percent. That’s the probability of the Thunder getting Philadelphia’s pick and none of San Antonio, Houston, or Dallas landing in the top four.
Whether Cooper Flagg goes East or West
The West already contains a slew of superstars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, Victor Wembanyama, and Anthony Edwards, and the conference may become even more unbalanced should Milwaukee trade Antetokounmpo.
The championship path for the Thunder already projects to be extremely rigorous for the next decade, so they definitely don’t need to add Flagg to the mix.
There’s a 56.7 percent chance that an East squad wins the first overall pick, which is barely better than a coin flip. For the sake of every team in the West, hopefully Flagg winds up with a franchise like Washington or Charlotte.