The OKC Thunder are heading into their NBA Finals matchup against the Indiana Pacers as massive favorites, with ESPN giving them -750 odds to win the whole thing. Some, such as Bleacher Report's Andy Bailey, are even going as far as to say Oklahoma City won't lose a single game.
While there are many reasons why Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and co. are being viewed in such high regard leading into Thursday's series opener, arguably the most important is their ability to play lock-down defense and, more specifically, to take away an opposing team's perimeter game.
For the Pacers, this right here may prove to be the ultimate reason for their (anticipated) downfall.
Thunder could very easily make Pacers' long-range game obsolete
During the 2024-25 season, Indiana established themselves as one of the most efficient three-point shooting teams in the association, cashing in on 36.8 percent of their 35.8 attempts per game.
Through three full rounds of playoff action, they've only managed to improve upon this area of play, as they sport far and away the best long-range shooting clip at 40.1 percent.
A whopping 34.2 percent of the team's 1,878 total points scored this postseason have come from beyond the arc, thus further strengthening the notion that the eye test has already suggested: the Pacers' offense has been heavily reliant on their three-point shooting.
While such a strategy has obviously proven successful up to this point, one should expect Indiana's smooth sailing from deep to meet hurricane-level conditions during this upcoming championship round.
The Thunder wrapped up the regular season as the top defense against perimeter scoring, holding opponents to a putrid 34.2 percent shooting average from distance, and have gotten even better in this particular department in the playoffs by lowering this average to a miserable 33.1 percent.
This should be especially concerning for the Pacers when considering the fact that all four of their losses during their 2025 Finals run saw them register a shooting clip of 31.7 percent or lower.
Lackluster conversion rates from deep have regularly been correlated with losses for the ball club all year long, as they boasted a mere 34.4 percent clip in such outcomes while seeing it rise to as high as 38.3 in winning efforts.
With several of the game's top perimeter defenders residing on their roster (Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, etc.), there's a great chance the Thunder will severely weaken or even completely take away one of Indiana's most reliable attributes from this year's postseason run in long-range shooting.