The OKC Thunder finished the 2024-25 regular season with 68 wins and the best point differential in NBA history.
Leading scorer Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the heavy favorite to win MVP, Luguentz Dort may claim Defensive Player of the Year, and Jalen Williams likely clinches a coveted All-NBA selection as a result of their top-flight play.
In truth, it was as close to a flawless regular season as one could ever get for the Thunder. Of course, their work is far from over.
They still need to rack up 16 more wins before achieving immortality, and, following Friday's Play-In Tournament finale, their playoff path will begin with a first-round series against the Memphis Grizzlies.
In order to navigate through this quarterfinal showdown, Oklahoma City will need to focus in on winning a few key inner-game battles along the way.
Turnovers
Memphis may have finished sixth in the NBA in offensive rating this year, but they struggled to avoid mistakes, resulting in the seventh-largest turnover percentage.
Queue the Jaws music, as OKC’s defense led the league in turnover percentage, steals plus blocks, deflections, charges drawn, and loose balls recovered.
According to Bucknell Sports Analytics, the Thunder also easily paced the league in its metric PEST, which measures a particular team’s defensive aggression and speed combined with defensive quality and an ability to force turnovers.
In other words, the Thunder excel at applying on-ball pressure and forcing panicked opponents into mistakes.
Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. must be extra cautious as decision-makers when handling the basketball in this series.
One player to monitor is Zach Edey, as the 7-foot-4 rookie doesn’t go up strong with the ball and often fumbles it under pressure
Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein may turn him into a turnover machine if that doesn’t change immediately, and losing the possession battle would be catastrophic for the Grizzlies.
Ja Morant versus Thunder’s perimeter defense
Ja Morant led the Grizzlies in points and assists per game this season with 23.2 and 7.3, respectively. He is Memphis’ best chance at creating consistent half-court offense due to his explosiveness and knack for getting to the rim.
However, Morant faces his toughest challenge yet, as Dort, Alex Caruso, and Cason Wallace await him. That’s three All-Defensive caliber perimeter defenders who can hound him for the entire game.
If he somehow manages to bypass the first line of defense, then Holmgren and Hartenstein lurk in the paint, ready to erase any mistakes.
The Grizzlies desperately need a great series from Morant in order to keep pace with OKC’s third-ranked offense. Otherwise, Memphis lacks the necessary creation juice to get the job done, especially if their defense continues to be mediocre.
Thunder’s long-range shooting
Memphis protects the paint and glass well with Jaren Jackson Jr. and Zach Edey on guard duty, but their perimeter defense is shaky outside of Scotty Pippen Jr. Therefore, attacking the Grizzlies by raining down triples will be a huge component of OKC’s offense in this series.
The Thunder finished the season shooting 37.4 percent from deep, which was sixth-best in the association. Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams will draw plenty of defensive attention inside the arc, so the surrounding players must step up and knock down lightly contested shots.
Dort, Caruso, and Wallace having an efficient series would be a game-changer because the Grizzlies could not commit to limiting OKC’s stars without major consequences.
Holmgren finding his stroke also allows the Thunder to punish Edey’s drop coverage and perhaps play the rookie off the court.
Overall, the Thunder should see a plethora of quality looks from beyond the arc against a Grizzlies defense that gave up the second-most wide-open triples per game. They need to convert at a respectable rate if they want to end the series quickly.