The second-round schedule is finally here! The Oklahoma City Thunder enter this series with eight full days of rest, while the Denver Nuggets will only be 48 hours removed from a grueling seven-game series.
Game 1 will therefore be a classic case of rest versus rust.
Which MVP candidate can guide their respective team to the Western Conference Finals? The answer will likely be determined by which of these ball clubs can win arguably the three most important matchups during this Western Conference Semifinal.
The double-big lineup vs Denver's frontcourt
Although Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein did not get a ton of minutes together this regular season due to injuries to both ballers, they have recently looked smooth on rotations and handling unorthodox assignments.
That’s highly encouraging because the double-big lineup will be the key to this series.
Denver runs their offense through Nikola Jokic in a variety of actions, but the former Finals MVP is most dangerous on post-ups due to his historically efficient touch around the basket and ability to make every pass in the book.
Limiting his impact on post-ups should be a major goal for OKC, and the double-big lineup has proven successful at accomplishing this feat.
Across two matchups in early March, Jokic went a combined 6-for-13 from the field when facing the duo. Hartenstein’s strength often stopped Jokic from backing his way to the basket, and Holmgren stepped up from the opposite block to show his 9-foot-6 standing reach when Jokic spun off Hartenstein.
If the double-big lineup can once again stifle Jokic’s scoring while also taking away Aaron Gordon’s lobs, then it will make life extremely difficult for the Nuggets’ offense.
It’s worth noting that the Thunder outscored Denver by 27.9 points per 100 possessions this season in the 29 minutes that Holmgren and Hartenstein shared the court. That’s an incredibly small sample, but the unit looked dominant on film.
Battle of the benches
Denver bested opponents by 11.5 points per 100 possessions with Jokic on the court in the regular season, yet they were outscored by 9.8 points per 100 possessions when he rested.
It’s largely because the Nuggets still have not addressed their backup center woes despite the issue persisting for years, and they also lack creators outside of Jokic and Jamal Murray.
Meanwhile, OKC boasts the deepest roster in the league and is more than capable of taking on elite foes when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander takes a breather.
This difference in depth gives the Thunder a much bigger margin for error. Jokic has to win his minutes, while SGA doesn’t. That’s a game-changer in the long run across a seven-game series.
If the Nuggets are going to pull off the upset, then the roster must step up consistently during the non-Jokic minutes.
Perimeter offense
The Nuggets and Thunder finished fifth and sixth, respectively, in three-point percentage, so both teams can shoot the lights out.
However, OKC was 10th in attempts per game (38.8), while Denver took the fewest in the NBA at 31.9 a night.
This gap in outside volume should give the Thunder a significant math advantage, especially if the Nuggets mostly wind up with tightly contested two-pointers due to Oklahoma City's hyper-elite defense.