The OKC Thunder will face the Milwaukee Bucks in the NBA Cup Finals this Tuesday, December 17 at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Although the game has no playoff implications, every player on the winning team receives $300,000 more than the loser. That’s a desirable incentive for the youthful Thunder because most of their players are on bargain contracts.
Jaylin Williams has already voiced his eagerness to claim the prize, and Alex Caruso is determined to deliver for the young guys.
However, they need to defeat Milwaukee before receiving the extra cash, and there are four key matchups OKC will need to focus in on to come away from this championship round victorious.
Key Matchups For Thunder vs. Bucks NBA Cup Finals
1. Damian Lillard vs. Cerberus
According to Greek mythology, Cerberus was a monstrous, three-headed dog who guarded the Underworld. Damian Lillard will face the NBA’s version of Cerberus on Tuesday in the form of Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso, and Cason Wallace.
They form the best perimeter defensive trio in the league and absolutely shut down elite scorers.
Pick-and-roll ball handlers are producing just 0.73 points per possession against the Thunder, while isolation scorers check in at 0.78 points per possession.
Both marks are the lowest across the association and speak to OKC’s defensive dominance. As a result, point guards unsurprisingly average the fewest points per game versus the Thunder.
53.5 percent of Lillard’s total points have come from pick-and-rolls or isolation scoring this season, so it will be difficult for him to churn out his typical offensive output.
It’s worth noting that the Bucks are 4-4 this season when the All-Star fails to reach 25 points.
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. primary defender
On the flip side, the Bucks’ defense is surrendering 0.952 points per possession to pick-and-roll ball handlers. Only the Hawks, Kings, and Blazers are worse.
Lillard remains a massive liability who struggles to fight through screens and stay in front of drivers. Brook Lopez excels at drop coverage and helps deter slashers from exploiting Lillard, but it does leave Milwaukee vulnerable to pull-up shooters.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander getting into a rhythm on pull-up jumpers would absolutely decimate Milwaukee’s scheme. He has shot just 29.7 percent on pull-up triples over his past ten games, which is simply not efficient enough to take advantage.
Overall, Milwaukee will do its best to keep Andre Jackson Jr. on SGA but look for the Thunder to consistently hunt Lillard and attempt to force switches.
3. Bobby Portis vs. the rebounding department
Isaiah Hartenstein is the Thunder’s only center currently in the rotation because of injuries to Chet Holmgren and Jaylin Williams. That opens the door for Bobby Portis to wreak havoc off the bench for Milwaukee, particularly in the rebounding department.
Portis owns the 25th-best offensive rebound percentage in the NBA and plays a physical brand of basketball. He will have a significant edge on the glass against Kenrich Williams and may even be able to snag numerous second-chance opportunities, thus protecting the Bucks from losing the possession battle via turnovers.
If Portis can keep Milwaukee afloat when Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo rest, then they have a far better chance of winning this contest.
4. Milwaukee vs. long-range shooting
This Thunder defense loves to apply tremendous pressure and aggressively collapse on slashers.
This strategy reduces rim attempts (the best shot in basketball), but it also allows opponents to rack up kick-outs. The Thunder subsequently give up the most corner attempts per game.
Although Milwaukee doesn’t take many shots from the corners, they are shooting a league-leading 49.1 percent from this area. Taurean Prince, Gary Trent Jr., and AJ Green should get quality looks, and a strong night from them would make up for a poor Lillard performance.